The Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets meet on Saturday in a game between teams going in different directions. Miami is on a four-game winning streak, with Brooklyn losing 10 consecutive games. The Nets are 29-26 this season, with the Heat bringing a 36-20 record into the festivities. Tyler Herro (knee) and P.J. Tucker (knee) are listed as questionable for Miami. Kevin Durant (knee), Joe Harris (ankle), LaMarcus Aldridge (ankle) and Nicolas Claxton (hamstring) are out for Brooklyn, with Seth Curry and Andre Drummond listed as questionable due to trade considerations. Ben Simmons likely won't debut for Brooklyn until after the All-Star break.
Miami is listed as an 11-point favorite at home for this 8 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 221 in the latest Nets vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Heat vs. Nets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 65-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nets vs. Heat, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Nets:
- Nets vs. Heat spread: Heat -11
- Nets vs. Heat over-under: 221 points
- Nets vs. Heat money line: Heat -650, Nets +450
- BKN: The Nets are 14-15 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 14-10 against the spread in home games
Why the Nets can cover
Brooklyn's offense can be explosive, scoring 111.5 points per 100 possessions. That ranks in the top 10 of the NBA this season, and the Nets are in the top five of the league in field-goal percentage (46.8 percent) and free-throw percentage (81.3 percent). Brooklyn produces more than 25 assists per game, a top-10 figure, and Miami is No. 30 in blocked shots and No. 27 in three-pointers allowed per game. On the opposite end, the Nets contest shots at an elite level.
Brooklyn is No. 2 in the league in 3-point defense, with opponents shooting only 33.2 percent from long distance. The Nets are also in the top 10 of the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed at 44.9 percent, and Miami is No. 27 in the league in points in the paint on offense. The Heat also struggle with ball security, committing the third-most turnovers in the league.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami's offense is operating at a high level, and Brooklyn's defense is scuffling. The Heat rank in the top eight of the NBA in offensive rating, scoring 112.1 points per 100 possessions, and the Nets are in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive rating. Brooklyn is allowing more than 1.22 points per possession during a 10-game losing streak, worst in the NBA over that span, and the Nets are in the bottom seven of the league in defensive rebound rate, turnover creation rate and steal rate for the full season.
Miami is leading the NBA in 3-point accuracy, making 37.7 percent of attempts, and the Heat are No. 6 in 3-pointers per game (13.5). Miami is making 81.6 percent of free-throw attempts, No. 2 in the league, and the Heat are very adept in passing to create edges. Miami averages 25.9 assists per game, No. 6 in the league, and the Heat produce an assist on 65.7 percent of field goals, No. 3 in the league. Finally, the Heat create second-chance opportunities by grabbing more than 29 percent of available rebounds on the offensive glass.
How to make Heat vs. Nets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 223 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Nets vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.