Teams teetering on the early playoff play-in threshold in their respective conferences meet on Monday in Minneapolis when the Miami Heat (7-10) take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8-8). Miami will play the second game of a road back-to-back after a lopsided loss against Cleveland on Sunday. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 4-5 as a home side, but is just 3-6 against the spread in those games this season.
Tip-off from the Target Center is set for 8 p.m. ET, where the Timberwolves are 4-5 this season. Minnesota is favored by 8.5 points in the latest Timberwolves vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 220.5. Before entering any Heat vs. Timberwolves picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four seasons. The model enters Week 6 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 103-68 roll on all top-rated NBA picks that dates back to last season, returning more than $2,700. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
- Timberwolves vs. Heat spread: Timberwolves -8.5
- Timberwolves vs. Heat over/under: 220.5 points
- Timberwolves vs. Heat money line: Minnesota -365, Miami +285
- Timberwolves vs. Heat picks: See picks here
What you need to know about the Timberwolves
Minnesota notched its closest win of the season in its last matchup on Saturday against the Philadelphia 76ers, 112-109. Shooting guard Anthony Edwards was the top scorer for Minnesota with 25 points. The frontcourt combination of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert combined for 21 of the team's 43 total rebounds, and the former finished with 12 points after a 5-for-14 shooting performance.
Overall this season, Minnesota has been a strong shooting side, and has the fifth-highest team shooting percentage in the NBA (48.3%). Gobert has made his shots at the highest rate among all Timberwolves rotation players (61.9%), primarily because 84.5% of his shots have come at the rim. He'll be looking to keep that production under the basket on Monday, as the Heat allowed Cleveland to score 50 points in the paint on Sunday.
What you need to know about the Heat
Things couldn't have gone much worse for Miami as they lost 113-87 to Cleveland in their last game. Miami was down by more than 30 points at the end of the third quarter, which was just too much to recover from. Point guard Kyle Lowry had a pretty forgettable game, after he put up just nine points on 2-for-10 shooting with five turnovers in 31 minutes. Center Bam Adebayo had the best showing of all Heat players, with 21 points and six rebounds.
Part of Miami's poor showing was the absence of Jimmy Butler, who has missed the last two games with a knee injury, and will be out again on Monday. Butler has averaged 20.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game this season, and replacing that production with one player isn't easy. Caleb Martin has done his best to up his game over his last four starts, and has averaged 14.5 points with 5.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists.
How to make Timberwolves vs. Heat picks
The model has simulated Timberwolves vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in more than 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
Who wins Timberwolves vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.