The top two picks in the 2021 draft will square off in NFL Week 16 when the Jacksonville Jaguars visit MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football. Top overall selection Trevor Lawrence has led a surge for the Jaguars (6-8), who are making a late run at a playoff spot and potentially the AFC South title. They are one game behind the 7-7 Titans in the division and two out of the final AFC playoff spot after a 40-34 overtime victory against Dallas last Sunday. That was their fourth victory in their past six games. Backup quarterback Zach Wilson, the No. 2 pick in 2021, will start again in place of Mike White for the Jets (7-7), who have lost three straight. New York won the last meeting between these teams 26-21 last December.

Kickoff in East Rutherford, N.J. is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Jets as 2.5-point favorites in the latest Jets vs. Jaguars odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 36.5. Before you lock in any Jaguars vs. Jets picks, you need to check out the Thursday Night Football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 157-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Thursday night's Jaguars vs. Jets matchup and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 16 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jets vs. Jaguars:  

  • Jets vs. Jaguars spread: Jets -2.5
  • Jets vs. Jaguars Over/Under: 36.5 points 
  • Jets vs. Jaguars money line: Jacksonville +115, New York -135
  • JAX: Jaguars are averaging 27 points over the past six games 
  • NYJ: Jets have allowed more than 20 just once in their past six games
  • Jets vs. Jaguars picks: See picks here
Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why the Jets can cover

The home team is 4-0 against the spread in the past four meetings, and the Jets dominated in the run game in the last meeting. They rushed for 273 yards, getting 118 from Michael Carter and 91 from Wilson, including a 52-yard touchdown run. Rookie Zonovan Knight has 253 rushing yards over the past four games, and Knight and Carter could find holes in a Jags defense that yields 118 rushing yards per game. Wilson replaced the injured White last week and threw for 317 yards and two touchdowns.

Defense has been the hallmark for these Jets, who are 6-0 against the spread in their past six following an ATS loss. New York has the third-best overall defense, a unit that allows 305 yards per game. It allows 194 through the air, and cornerbacks D.J. Reed and presumed rookie of the year Sauce Gardner can shut down receivers. They have combined for 27 pass breakups. New York gets a sack on 7.74% of dropbacks (eighth in NFL) and has 39 overall, led by Quinnen Williams with 11. The Jets allow 18.8 points per game (fourth in NFL), and the Jags give up 23.4 (21st). See which team to pick here.

Why the Jaguars can cover

Jacksonville is 6-7-1 against the spread, but 4-2 in its past six. Trevor Lawrence has been playing at a high level over that six-game span and leads an offense that averages 24 points. The unit ranks in the league's top 10 in both rushing and passing. Lawrence has almost 1,700 passing yards and 14 TD passes in those six games. He threw for 280 yards in the meeting with New York last year, a 26-21 loss that ended with a Jets goal-line stand. Lawrence threw for 318 yards and four TDs last week, his third game over 300 yards in his past four.

The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four conference games, and Zay Jones has joined receiver Christian Kirk to form a strong receiving duo. Jones has 415 receiving yards over the past five games, topping 100 twice. Kirk leads the team with 73 receptions for 966 yards and seven TDs. The Jags average 4.9 per rush, the sixth-best mark in the league, and running back Travis Etienne has 917 rushing yards (5.0 per carry). The defense has struggled on third down (29th in NFL) so it gives up yardage (27th), but New York is 26th in third-down conversion rate at 35%. See which team to pick here.

How to make Jets vs. Jaguars picks

The model has broken down Thursday night's Jaguars vs. Jets matchup from all angles. The model is leaning over on the point total, suggesting it will be a duel between the young quarterbacks. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the model's TNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Jaguars vs. Jets on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Jaguars vs. Jets spread you should be all over Thursday, all from the model on a 157-113 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.