Last year at this time Blake Jarwin was one of our favorite breakout candidates at tight end. Jason Witten had left Dallas and the Cowboys had given Jarwin a new deal for three years and $24.5 million. The Cowboys projected to be one of the top pass offenses in football and Jarwin looked primed for a top-12 season. It does not take any more than that for us to get excited about a tight end.
Unfortunately, Jarwin tore his ACL in Week 1 and missed the remainder of the year. And the Dynasty community (including myself) mostly forgot about him. This is your notice that it's time to remember and make a buy low offer before it's too late.
The Cowboys have given 116 targets per year to the tight end position in Kellen Moore's tenure in Dallas. The No. 1 tight end each year has seen at least 89 targets. I currently only have Jarwin projected for 78 targets because there's still some uncertainty as to when he'll be 100%, but even at that number, he's a borderline TE1. But assuming he's 100% by Week 1 there should be no doubt who the Cowboys' best tight end is.
Jarwin is a better athlete than Dalton Schultz and he's been more efficient as a pass catcher when targeted. Jarwin has been better in terms catch rate, yards per catch, yards per target, and touchdown rate in their short careers. In fact, if you project Schultz's targets from last year with Jarwin's career efficiency, you get 185 Fantasy points, which would have been TE3 last year. Schultz finished last year as TE11, same as Jason Witten in 2019.
That production is not reasonable to expect from Jarwin, but 80-90% of it would make him a Fantasy starter and we're desperate for those at tight end. At the very least, he should be slightly better than Witten and Schultz the past two years, and they've been good enough to be a low-end starter. Considering Jarwin going undrafted in a lot of redrafts right now, the cost to acquire him in Dynasty may very well be zero. You should find out.
As always, these rankings come with the caveat that they're built for everyone, so they may not be perfectly suited for the outliers. If you're one of the best teams in the league, you should elevate veterans. If you're rebuilding, you should elevate youth.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.