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Fenway Park hosts a high-profile American League Division Series matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Boston Red Sox welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to town for the first of two games at Fenway, with the best-of-five series knotted at 1-1. Tampa Bay opened with a shutout win in Game 1 on Thursday. Boston countered with a 14-6 blowout in Game 2, stealing home-field advantage with a win at Tropicana Field.

First pitch is at 4:07 p.m. ET in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the -115 favorite (risk $115 to win $100) on the money line, while the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 8.5 in the latest Rays vs. Red Sox odds. Before you make any Red Sox vs. Rays picks, be sure to see the MLB playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, enters the 2021 MLB playoffs with a 206-173 record on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning well over $800. It also had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Red Sox vs. Rays and he just revealed his MLB playoff 2021 picks and analysis. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Now, here are several MLB playoffs odds and trends for Rays vs. Red Sox:

  • Rays vs. Red Sox money line: Rays +105, Red Sox -115
  • Rays vs. Red Sox over-under: 8.5 runs
  • Rays vs. Red Sox run line: Rays -1.5 (+150)
  • TB: The Rays are 48-33 on the road this season
  • BOS: The Red Sox are 49-32 in 2021 home games
Featured Game | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Why you should back the Rays

Tampa Bay enjoyed the best statistical season of any American League team, winning 100 games and leading the AL in run differential by out-scoring opponents by 206 runs. The Rays are very strong offensively, scoring 857 runs (No. 2 in the AL) and ranking in the top five in home runs (222), doubles (288), walks (585), stolen bases (88), slugging percentage (.428) and OPS (.749). 

Brandon Lowe and Mike Zunino each eclipsed 30 home runs in 2021, and Randy Arozarena has 11 home runs in only 100 career plate appearances in the postseason. With that offense and the AL's No. 1 group in team ERA (3.69), walks (436) and bullpen ERA (3.24) on the run prevention side, the Rays project to be effective in this matchup. Starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen holds a 2.84 ERA this season, and his last eight starts were excellent with a 1.46 ERA.

Why you should back the Red Sox

Boston has the advantage of playing in front of its home fans, and the Red Sox also have a trustworthy starting pitcher on the mound. Nathan Eovaldi boasts a 1.63 career ERA in the playoffs, and he tossed six shutout innings in Boston's Wild Card Game win over the New York Yankees. Eovaldi also has a strong 3.47 ERA at Fenway Park this season and, in four starts against the Rays, he generated 31 strikeouts in 26.1 innings on the way to a 2.39 ERA. 

Eovaldi should have enough run support to be comfortable, as the Red Sox were a top-four team in the American League in runs, total bases, batting average, OPS, slugging percentage and doubles this season. Boston also had the best home OPS (.831) in the Major Leagues this season, with an outstanding .350 on-base percentage at Fenway Park.

How to make Red Sox vs. Rays picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting 9.7 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get that pick at SportsLine

So who wins Rays vs. Red Sox? And which side of the money line hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of Red Sox vs. Rays you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed it MLB picks, and find out.