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The Washington Nationals aim to right the ship on Independence Day. Washington is on a four-game losing streak, including three straight defeats at the hands of the Miami Marlins. The Nationals host the Marlins on Monday in the finale of a four-game set. Washington is 29-52 this season, and Miami is 37-40 after four straight victories. Washington star outfielder Juan Soto is day to day after leaving Sunday's matchup with calf tightness. 

Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the -120 money-line favorite (risk $120 to win $100) for this 11:05 a.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is nine in the latest Marlins vs. Nationals odds. Before making any Nationals vs. Marlins picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. and it is 271-232 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning well over $500 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nationals vs. Marlins, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Marlins vs. Nationals:

  • Nationals vs. Marlins money line: Marlins -120, Nationals +100
  • Nationals vs. Marlins over-under: 9 runs
  • Nationals vs. Marlins run line: Marlins -1.5 (+135)
  • MIA: The Marlins are 18-24 in road games
  • WASH: The Nationals are 14-30 in home games
  • Nationals vs. Marlins picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins

Why you should back the Marlins

Miami has a speed advantage that is plain and obvious. The Marlins lead the National League with 62 stolen bases this season, and Miami can pick up extra bases with regularity with an aggressive approach. Miami's offense has also improved during a four-game winning streak, and the Marlins are set to face a shaky starting pitcher in Patrick Corbin

Washington's left-handed starter has a 6.06 ERA this season, and he has allowed more hits (107) and runs (55) than any National League pitcher in 2022. Corbin has an unsightly 1.70 WHIP this season, and that plays into Miami's hands. From there, Washington's offense has strengths, but it also falls well below the National League average in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage this season.

Why you should back the Nationals

Washington has the pedigree advantage at starting pitcher in Corbin. While the veteran lefty has struggled in 2022, there are encouraging recent signs. The two-time All-Star allowed only one earned run with 12 strikeouts in eight innings in his last outing. In addition, Corbin led the Marlins to two earned runs across six innings in an early start against Miami this season. 

Miami also has notable offensive weaknesses for Washington to exploit, with below-average marks in runs scored, hits, doubles, home runs, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS in 2022. On offense, the Nationals have the benefit of a friendly matchup against Miami's Braxton Garrett. He has a 5.24 career ERA, including a 5.20 ERA this season, and Garrett has a 1.70 WHIP in 2022. Opponents have an .886 OPS against Garrett this season, including a .919 OPS from right-handed batters.

How to make Marlins vs. Nationals picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Nationals vs. Marlins? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.