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Two teams that finished the regular season on high notes square off in the 2022 NFL playoffs on Sunday Night Football. The Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to Arrowhead Stadium in a battle between the No. 2 seed and the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Kansas City is 12-5 after nine wins in the last 10 games, and that includes a 26-point victory over the Steelers in Week 16. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 3-1 in the last four games and 9-7-1 overall this season.

Kick-off in Kansas City is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Chiefs as 12.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 46.5 in its latest Chiefs vs. Steelers odds. Before you make any Steelers vs. Chiefs picks and NFL playoff predictions, make sure you check out what red-hot SportsLine's resident Chiefs expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. This season he has been on fire. Hartstein is 67-45 with his last 112 sides, for a profit of more than $1,600.

In addition, Hartstein has gone an astounding 22-8 on his last 30 picks involving Kansas City, returning $1300 to $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Chiefs vs. Steelers and locked in his Wild Card playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Hartstein's picks. Here are several NFL odds and Wild Card betting lines for Steelers vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Steelers spread: Chiefs -12.5
  • Chiefs vs. Steelers over-under: 46.5 points 
  • Chiefs vs. Steelers money line: Chiefs -800, Steelers +550 
  • PIT: The Steelers are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games 
  • KC: The Chiefs are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Why the Steelers can cover

Pittsburgh leads the NFL in sacks this season, taking down opposing quarterbacks on 55 occasions. The Steelers are also elite in keeping opponents out of the end zone, posting a top-five mark in red zone efficiency allowed (50.8 percent). Pittsburgh allows opponents to convert third downs at only a 37.1 percent clip, forcing 22 turnovers.

The Steelers are in the top 10 of the NFL in pass defense, allowing 215.1 yards per game, and are above-average in passer rating allowed (88.7), completion rate allowed (63.1 percent), yards per attempt allowed (7.1), touchdown passes allowed (24) and interceptions (13). Kansas City is very strong on offense, but ball security has been an issue, with the Chiefs committing 25 turnovers, including the third-most fumbles lost (12) in the NFL this season.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City's defense ranks near the top of the NFL in multiple categories, allowing 21.4 points per game and creating 29 turnovers in 17 games. In this matchup, the Chiefs should also benefit from a scuffling Steelers offense. Pittsburgh averaged only 20.2 points per game this season, falling below the NFL average. The Steelers also produced only 315.4 total yards per game, landing in the bottom 10 of the NFL. Pittsburgh is No. 24 in first downs, No. 28 in yards per drive and No. 23 in points per drive, with a per-play average of only 4.8 yards. 

Pittsburgh particularly struggles on the ground, producing only 93.1 rushing yards per game and ranking in the bottom five of the NFL. The Steelers are also in the bottom five of the NFL in yards per rush attempt (3.9) and rushing touchdowns (10), with a below-average mark in converting third downs at 38.9 percent. Finally, Pittsburgh is only No. 23 in the NFL in red zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown on only 54.0 percent of trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line this season.

How to make Steelers vs. Chiefs picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning over on the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side of the Chiefs vs. Steelers spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Steelers vs. Chiefs in the NFL playoffs 2022? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Hartstein's Steelers vs. Chiefs picks, all from the NFL expert who's 22-8 on picks involving Kansas City, and find out.