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One of the NFL's best offenses will face one of the league's best defenses when the Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots in a key Week 13 Thursday Night Football game at Gillette Stadium. The Bills (8-3) rank second in the league in total offense (415.9 yards per game). Meanwhile, the Patriots (6-5) are fourth in total defense (307.8 yards per game). Thursday's game will be the first meeting between the teams since Buffalo routed New England, 47-17, in last season's Wild Card round.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by four points in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is 44. Before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-110 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in its picks and NFL TNF Week 13 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills: 

  • Bills vs. Patriots spread: Buffalo -4
  • Bills vs. Patriots over/under: 44 points
  • Bills vs. Patriots money line: Buffalo -215, New England +180
  • BUF: Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in December
  • NE: Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus AFC opponents
  • Bills vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo owns a potent and electric offense that can score plenty of points. The Bills roll into this divisional bout ranked second in the NFL in total offense (415.9), third in passing offense (279.2), and second in points per game (28.1). Josh Allen and company have dominated the Patriots as of late too. They have amassed 400-plus yards and 30-plus points in three of the past four matchups.

Even though this group is known for its aerial attack, Buffalo is getting its ground game going. The Bills have rushed for 160-plus yards in three straight games. Allen is a bruising and powerful ball-carrier who isn't afraid of contact. The 26-year-old leads the team with 561 yards, five scores, and seven carries of 20-plus yards. Running back Devin Singletary is a shifty and elusive runner. Singletary (5-foot-7) can find behind his offensive line before bursting through the hole. The FAU product has recorded 124 carriers with 552 yards and three touchdowns. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

New England has arguably the league's best pass-rusher, Matthew Judon. The former Baltimore Raven leads the NFL in sacks (13), one more than the next best player, the Cowboys' Micah Parsons. Over the last three games, Judon has 4.5 sacks combined. Led by Judon, the Patriots have 37 sacks this season, second only to Dallas.

In addition, New England faces a Bills team that will need to replace prolific pass-rusher Von Miller. The three-time first-team All-Pro, who was signed as a free agent in the offseason, will miss the game because of what he called "lateral meniscus damage" in his right knee. Miller leads the team and ranks 12th in the league in sacks (eight). See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over the point total. In fact, it's calling for 45 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the model's TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Patriots vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.