After spending much of the season in first place in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills will try to regain the top spot when they take on the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Patriots (8-4) have been red-hot and own a six-game winning streak, the longest active mark in the league. The Bills (7-4) have split their last six games after opening the season 4-1. Buffalo has won the last two meetings with New England, but the Patriots have won nine of the last 12 matchups.

Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET.  Buffalo is a three-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 40.5. Before you make any Patriots vs. Bills picks or Monday Night Football predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine's top NFL expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2021 campaign, Hartstein was 351-291 all-time on NFL sides, including 326-280 against the spread. He is returning more than $2,200 for $100 bettors and is SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert on a 53-26 roll. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has locked in on Bills vs. Patriots from every angle and released a confident against-the-spread pick. You can visit SportsLine now to see it. Here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Bills:

  • Patriots vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -3
  • Patriots vs. Bills over-under: 40.5 points 
  • Patriots vs. Bills money line: New England +125, Buffalo -145 
  • NE: Patriots are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall 
  • BUF: Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in December
Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Why the Bills can cover

Running back Devin Singletary has played well against New England, rushing for 86 yards in his last home game against the Patriots. He has also rushed for a touchdown in two of his last three games against a division foe. Singletary leads Buffalo in rushing, carrying 98 times for 459 yards (4.7 average) and two touchdowns. He has a pair of explosive plays of 20 yards or more and converted 21 first downs.

Defensively, the Bills have a force on the line in veteran defensive end Mario Addison, who has registered four sacks for 21 yards and forced a fumble. He has 20 tackles, including 12 solo, with four tackles for loss. He had two tackles for loss and a sack in Week 12. In 148 career games, Addison has 272 tackles, including 169 solo, with 64 sacks and 12 forced fumbles. He has also broken up six passes and has four fumble recoveries.

Why the Patriots can cover 

With Buffalo All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White out with a torn ACL, rookie quarterback Mac Jones will look to build on last week's big performance in the win over Tennessee. Jones completed 23-of-32 attempts (71.9 percent) for a career-high 310 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions for a 123.2 rating. He can become just the third rookie since 1970 to have a 70 or better completion percentage in four straight games with a minimum of 20 attempts. Jones is also looking for his fourth game in a row with a 95 or better rating.

Running back Damien Harris had 52 yards from scrimmage, including 40 rushing, including a rushing touchdown last week. Harris is looking for his third game in a row with 50 or more yards from scrimmage and is looking to rush for a touchdown in his seventh game in eight tries. In his last road game against the Bills, he rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown. He has also 100 or more yards rushing in two of three games against AFC East opponents this season.

How to make Patriots vs. Bills picks

Hartstein is leaning over on the point total, and he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread a must-back. He's only sharing what it is, along with his Bills vs. Patriots picks, at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on, all from the top-rated expert who returned more than $2,200 to $100 players entering the 2021 season, and find out.