matthew-stafford-7-1400-us.jpg
USATSI

The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers will wrap up Week 4 when these NFC West rivals square up for "Monday Night Football." Of course, there's no shortage of history between these two teams. For the bulk of Sean McVay's tenure in L.A., the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan -- who McVay worked under in Washington -- have had his number. McVay was 3-7 against Shanahan leading into the NFC Championship a year ago, where the Rams would edge out a win and eventually go on to win Super Bowl LVI. Needless to say, we should expect some fireworks in this matchup.

Here, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. 

How to watch

Date: Monday, Oct. 3 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara)
TV:
ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: 49ers -1.5, O/U 42.5

Line movement

Featured Game | San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

This game was initially a pick'em when the schedule was first released back in the spring. As the season rolled along, this line jumped to 49ers -2.5 and, while San Francisco has held as the favorite, they are now laying 1.5 points at home heading into this divisional showdown. 

The pick: Rams +1.5. The 49ers have dominated this matchup in the regular season. Jimmy Garoppolo is even 6-0 against L.A. in the regular season throughout his career. That said, the Rams may have exorcized those demons with their NFC Championship win last season and that's where I'm leaning in this matchup. San Francisco comes into this matchup holding opponents to an NFL-best 3.9 yards per play. While impressive, if you look at their schedule and how their games have unfolded, you can poke holes in that. They played the Bears in a flood at Solider Field, the Seahawks at home, and an unimpressive Broncos team led by Russell Wilson. This will be the best offense that this defense has played this season, so there could be some lumps that we didn't necessarily recognize over the first three weeks. It's also worth pointing out that the underdog in this head-to-head is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Key trend: Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.

Over/Under total

The total has seen a pretty dramatic drop since it was released at 51 back in May. Heading into Week 3, this number sunk to 47.5 and it's only gone down further, hitting 44 points last Monday. Now, the total sits at 42.5, nearly 10 points below its initial number. 

The pick: Under 42.5. The Niners offense is averaging just 15.7 points per game this season while the defense has held opponents to a league-low 12.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Rams offense hasn't been as explosive as it was a year ago, averaging 20.3 points per game, which sits roughly in the middle of the league. With those figures in mind, it's not surprising to learn that the Under is a combined 5-1 for these teams this season. 

Key trend: Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in San Francisco.

Matthew Stafford props

Matthew Stafford
LAR • QB • #9
CMP%72.5
YDs761
TD4
INT5
YD/Att7.46
View Profile
  • Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
  • Passing yards: 249.5 (Over -103, Under -133)
  • Rushing yards: 2.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
  • Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
  • Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
  • Completions: 23.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
  • Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -117, Under -117)

I think this is going to be a tightly contested game, which should set up Stafford to be throwing a lot. So far this season, he's gone over this completions prop twice and has a 72.5 completion percentage. Including the playoffs, Stafford went over this number in two of his three games against the Niners last season. Given the pressure that San Francisco can apply through their pass rush, Stafford throwing a pick in this game also isn't a bad place to look. 

Jimmy Garoppolo props

Jimmy Garoppolo
SF • QB • #10
CMP%62.0
YDs365
TD2
INT1
YD/Att7.3
View Profile
  • Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +129, Under -179)
  • Passing yards: 223.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
  • Rushing yards: 2.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
  • Passing attempts: 28.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
  • Longest pass completion: 35.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
  • Completions: 19.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
  • Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +100, Under -137)

Garoppolo was not particularly great in his first start of the year last week, so he could be in for a bounce-back game against a Rams team that he's enjoyed great success against. However, he will be without star left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) in this game, which is noteworthy. Given that big-time blow to the O-line and that this total has sunk to 42.5, I'm not sure Shanahan will put Garoppolo in a ton of positions to air it out. That makes me lean Under on his passing yards and passing attempts mark.

Player props to consider

Jeff Wilson Jr. total rushing yards: Over 54.5 (-133). Wilson has topped this rushing yard prop in both games he's started this season and San Francisco should still lean heavily on the running game. 

Tyler Higbee total receptions: Over 4.5 (+100). Higbee is the second most-targeted pass catcher in this offense, only looking up to Cooper Kupp. He's averaging eight targets and 5.3 receptions per game.