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Week 13 of the 2022 NFL schedule kicks off when the New England Patriots host the AFC rival Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football =at Gillette Stadium. The Bills (8-3) are tied for the lead in the AFC East standings with Miami and will try to earn their first win over an AFC East team this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots (6-5) are in last place in the division, but just two games behind the co-leaders. New England has lost the last two meetings against the Bills and four of the last five.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a four-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before you make any Bills vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's resident Patriots expert and data scientist, Stephen Oh.

The renowned co-founder of Accuscore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model. Last season, he went 97-81-1 on his NFL picks. And he is on an amazing run in games involving the Patriots. Oh is 16-7 with his last 23 against-the-spread picks involving New England.

Now, Oh has zeroed in on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in his picks and TNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Oh's picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Bills:

  • Patriots vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -4
  • Patriots vs. Bills over/under: 44 points 
  • Patriots vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -215, New England +180
  • BUF: Bills rank second in the league in scoring offense (28.1 points per game) 
  • NE: Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks (13) 
  • Patriots vs. Bills picks: See picks here
Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo is a top-five team on both sides of the ball. Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the offense ranks second in the NFL in both yards per game (415.9) and points per game (28.1). On defense, the Bills rank fifth in points per game (18.1).

In addition, Allen has had success against New England recently. The 26-year-old has a 13:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four meetings against the Patriots, including the playoffs. The Bills went 3-1 over those four games, scoring 32.0 points per game. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

New England faces a quarterback who has struggled in the passing game recently. Bills signal-caller Josh Allen, who injured his elbow in Week 9 against the Jets, has had a passer rating of less than 81.0 in four of his last five games. Last week against Detroit, he averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt and earned a passer rating of 80.8.

That bodes well for a Patriots pass defense that has been excellent this season. The defense leads the league in completion percentage allowed (58.4) and ranks third in passer rating allowed (78.8). New England also ranks in the top 10 in yards per attempt allowed (6.72) and interceptions (12). See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

Now, Oh has broken down Patriots vs. Bills from every angle. He is leaning Over on the point total, and he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who is 16-7 on against-the-spread picks involving New England, and find out.