I don't know. That's the answer I've given every time somebody has asked me who I think will win the UEFA Europa League final between Inter Milan and Sevilla on CBS All Access. I wish I did, but I don't have a great read on the winner simply because I don't believe there's an obvious answer.
On the one hand, as a good Italian boy who loves Serie A, I'm inclined to root for Inter. On the other hand, I once played the role of Figaro in an elementary school production of The Barber of Seville. So, I'm emotionally torn here.
When it comes to logic, Inter have been the best team in the Europa League since the restart. In its three matches against Getafe, Bayer Leverkusen and Shakhtar Donetsk, the Nerazzurri has outscored its opponents 9-1. That's impressive, but it's not like Sevilla have been lazing about. They've beaten Roma, Wolverhampton and Manchester United 5-1 in three matches, and those three sides are better than anybody Inter have played since the return.
So, who's going to win? I have no idea, but I do suspect that two teams that have kept a lid on their own goal lately might find themselves digging the ball out of the back of the net more than they have been. That's where my attention will be focused.
- Odds: Inter Milan +115; Draw +230; Sevilla +240 (via William Hill Sportsbook)
Both Teams To Score (-120)
As mentioned above, these two have outscored opponents 14-2 since the return, but those numbers are slightly misleading. Inter have allowed 0.9 xGA per match while Sevilla are allowing 1.3 xGA in those matches. One could argue that Sevilla got a bit lucky against Man United, as they lost the xG battle 0.9-2.4 while winning the actual match 2-1.
Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez have been a potent combo for Inter recently, and it's hard to imagine the two of them not coming through at some point.
But then there's Sevilla. This will be the most potent attacking for Inter have faced since the restart, and it will give an Inter team that did struggle defensively at times in league play problems.
Over 2.5 (+100)
This play is very much in line with the previous play. If both teams are going to score, then there's a good chance we'll see three goals during the match. At even odds, I see no reason not to play both. Hell, while I don't do parlays myself, I won't hate you if that's the route you want to take.
Romelu Lukaku to score (+125)
The marriage of Lukaku and Inter manager Antonio Conte is perfect. Lukaku has just gotten better and better as the season has gone on, and he might be the best striker in the world at the moment (especially if you ask Roberto Martinez). This is the result of a perfect blend between player and system, and it's hard to imagine Lukaku not scoring at least once in this match.
Seriously, I went in expecting the odds on a Lukaku goal to be around the -125 range, and when I saw +125, I nearly leaped through my screen to grab it before it disappeared. It would be best if you did the same.
