Texas A&M goes for a fourth-consecutive victory when it travels to Starkville to face the cowbells and the Mississippi State Bulldogs at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday. In the most-recent Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State odds, the host Bulldogs are favored by 1.5 points, down from -3 to open, while the over-under on total points scored is 42.5. The Aggies are 5-2 overall, 3-1 in the SEC, as they look to keep pace with 4-1 LSU for second place behind Alabama in the SEC West. But MSU (4-3, 1-3) beat Auburn its last home game and has one of the SEC's top defenses. With such an intriguing matchup, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say before making any Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State picks and predictions.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.
The model made several huge calls against the spread in Week 8, including nailing LSU (-6) over Mississippi State, Washington State (-3) over Oregon and Alabama (-29.5) over Tennessee. And when it comes to top-rated picks against the spread, it finished Week 8 on a strong 5-1 run. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now it has simulated No. 16 Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that model has a slight lean to the under, and says one side hits in over half of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that Mississippi State's defense has been as good as anyone's in the SEC. The unit ranks 10th in the country at 168 passing yards allowed and 21st in rushing (115). Just ask No. 8 Auburn, which was held to 277 total yards in a 23-9 Bulldogs win two weeks ago.
Dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald has hurt teams with his feet, rushing for 644 yards and seven TDs, while sophomore Kylin Hill has gained 524 yards. Combined, the two average 5.9 yards per carry. They totaled 321 yards against the Tigers. Fitzgerald has completed just 47 percent of his passes with four TDs and seven INTs this season, but he faces an Aggies defense that ranks 90th against the pass. He hopes to find a form that allowed him to pass for 15 TDS and zero INTs last season.
But just because Mississippi State features a ferocious defense doesn't mean it will cover against a rested Texas A&M squad.
The Aggies have lost two games this season -- to Alabama and Clemson, the top two teams in the nation. They've won three in a row, all single-digit nail-biters, against Arkansas, Kentucky and South Carolina.
Usually known for an explosive offense, it has been A&M's 21st-ranked defense that has kept the Aggies rolling this season. Opponents have managed to get into the red zone just 15 times all year against Texas A&M, with nine touchdowns allowed. By comparison, the Aggies' offense has 35 red zone appearances this season.
So, which side of the Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State spread hits in over half of simulations? Visit SportsLine to see which side of Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State you need to jump on, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit to $100 bettors over the last three seasons.