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If you've had trouble narrowing down the closer for every team, you're not alone. Modern managers generally refrain from assigning formal roles, with most claiming that they'd prefer to keep every reliever flexible -- the dreaded closer-by-committee, in other words.

A lot of it is just talk. It's true that roles are less rigid than in the past, but most managers still have a preference for the ninth inning that they'll reveal in due time. In the meantime, we're left to discern from hints both subtle and unsubtle.

What follows is what I've discerned to be the closer hierarchy (or pecking order) for every team. I've denoted how much confidence I have in every front-runner and how likely every situation is to devolve into a true committee. Even for those scenarios in which the choice to close is obvious, I've listed a few backup options just for people whose leagues also use holds. The higher a pitcher is in the pecking order, the better a source of holds he'll be.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Pecking order
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Ian Kennedy ARI RP

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Mark Melancon

Atlanta Braves
Pecking order
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Kenley Jansen ATL RP

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Kenley Jansen  

Baltimore Orioles
Pecking order

Confidence in top guy: low
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? none  

Boston Red Sox
Pecking order
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Matt Barnes BOS RP
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Garrett Whitlock BOS RP

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Matt Barnes

Barnes has struggled with velocity this spring, but the Red Sox are hopeful a mechanical tweak will fix it. They've already committed to using Garrett Whitlock to piggyback with starter Rich Hill, leaving them with little other choice for the ninth inning.

Chicago Cubs

Confidence in top guy: low
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? Rowan Wick 

Chicago White Sox
Pecking order
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Aaron Bummer CHW RP

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Liam Hendriks

Cincinnati Reds
Pecking order
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Art Warren CIN RP
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Lucas Sims CIN RP
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Justin Wilson CIN RP
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Tony Santillan CIN RP

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? Art Warren, Lucas Sims

Sims, the initial front-runner, will be sidelined for the first couple weeks with elbow soreness, giving Warren a chance to seize the job. Both have the swing-and-miss stuff befitting the role, but Warren got more out of it last year, compiling a 1.29 ERA in 26 appearances.

Cleveland Guardians

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Emmanuel Clase

Colorado Rockies

Confidence in top guy: low
Chances of committee: medium
Who's rosterable? Alex Colome

At least one Rockies beat writer thinks Daniel Bard will get a first crack at the role, but color me skeptical. Colome has a track record of success in it, and Bard faltered in his chance last year.

Detroit Tigers
Pecking order
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Jose Cisnero DET RP

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? Gregory Soto, Michael Fulmer

Fulmer's velocity has been down a couple miles per hour this spring, giving Soto more runway than initially thought.

Houston Astros

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Ryan Pressly  

Kansas City Royals
Pecking order
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Josh Staumont KC RP
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Jacob Brentz KC RP

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: medium
Who's rosterable? Scott Barlow

Los Angeles Angels

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Raisel Iglesias

Los Angeles Dodgers
Pecking order
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Blake Treinen LAD RP
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Daniel Hudson LAD RP

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Craig Kimbrel, Blake Treinen

Miami Marlins
Pecking order
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Anthony Bender MIA RP
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Cole Sulser MIA RP
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Louis Head MIA RP

Confidence in top guy: low
Chances of committee: medium
Who's rosterable? Anthony Bender, Dylan Floro

Floro, who closed successfully down the stretch last season but is sidelined by arm soreness to begin 2022, may not miss enough time for Bender to seize the role. Bender is the more impressive pitcher, though, and it's not like Floro had he role on lockdown before the injury.

Milwaukee Brewers

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Josh Hader, Devin Williams

Minnesota Twins
Pecking order
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Jorge Alcala MIN RP
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Joe Smith MIN RP

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: medium
Who's rosterable? Taylor Rogers

Rogers is likely to be effective and likely to have some role in closing duties, but manager Rocco Baldelli fancies himself a committee guy and may try to force the issue.

New York Mets
Pecking order
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Trevor May NYM RP

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Edwin Diaz 

New York Yankees
Pecking order
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Chad Green NYY RP
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Jonathan Loaisiga NYY RP

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga

Oakland Athletics
Pecking order

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Lou Trivino

Philadelphia Phillies

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Corey Knebel 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Confidence in top guy: low
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? Chris Stratton, David Bednar

This bullpen might be the only one in which you'd rather roster the second choice (Bednar) than the first (Stratton). Bednar is clearly the better pitcher, and the Pirates are actually saying the two will share the role this season. Still, I suspect Stratton will get the larger share just to keep Bednar's cost down when he enters arbitration in a couple years.

San Diego Padres
Pecking order
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Robert Suarez SD RP
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Pierce Johnson SD RP
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Austin Adams SD RP

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: medium
Who's rosterable? Robert Suarez, Dinelson Lamet

San Francisco Giants

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? Jake McGee, Camilo Doval

Manager Gabe Kapler said in a radio interview a while back that he'd consider McGee the closer if the season started today but added that the Giants have three good candidates to do it. McGee is the one lefty of the three, and seeing as Kapler has generally scoffed at bullpen roles, preferring to keep every reliever versatile, I don't put as much stock in the comment as others have.

Seattle Mariners
Pecking order
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Drew Steckenrider SEA RP

Confidence in top guy: low
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? Drew Steckenrider, Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo,  Ken Giles, Andres Munoz

Giles has been an ace closer in the past and might have the best chance of claiming the role outright whenever he's recovered from a finger tendon issue (it could be a while), but manager Scott Servais was talking about implementing a committee even before Giles got hurt. Any of these relievers would be a fine closer if he would just stick with one, but he never did last year, coming closest with Steckenrider toward the end.

St. Louis Cardinals

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: medium
Who's rosterable? Giovanny Gallegos  

Tampa Bay Rays
Pecking order
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Andrew Kittredge TB RP
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JT Chargois TB RP
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J.P. Feyereisen TB RP

Confidence in top guy: medium
Chances of committee: medium
Who's rosterable? Andrew Kittredge

Texas Rangers
Pecking order
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Matt Bush TEX RP

Confidence in top guy: low
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? Joe Barlow

Barlow filled the role capably down the stretch as a rookie last season, but one beat writer said manager Chris Woodward wanted someone with more experience in the role given the elevated expectations for the Rangers this season. Then again, one of the alternatives cited, Spencer Patton, didn't make the opening day roster, and another, Greg Holland, was nearly cut himself. Barlow could claim the role by default.

Toronto Blue Jays
Pecking order
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Yimi Garcia TOR RP

Confidence in top guy: high
Chances of committee: low
Who's rosterable? Jordan Romano

Washington Nationals

Confidence in top guy: low
Chances of committee: high
Who's rosterable? none