When the Kansas City Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill last offseason, many questioned if this would signal a decline for Patrick Mahomes. However, the 27-year-old quarterback proved he could thrive without an elite receiver lined up on the outside and finished as the highest-scoring Fantasy quarterback for the first time since 2018 en route to winning his second NFL MVP. Mahomes set career-highs in completion percentage (67.1%), passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) and will be sky-high in the 2023 Fantasy football rankings. The Chiefs still don't have a true No. 1 receiver with options like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore, but Travis Kelce returns will be one of the most consistent 2023 Fantasy football picks.
In drafts, you'll need to target the top 2023 Fantasy football sleepers and 2023 Fantasy football breakouts while avoiding the biggest 2023 Fantasy football busts. Before setting your 2023 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2023 Fantasy football cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last year, the model accurately predicted that 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel was being dramatically overvalued. Samuel was the sixth receiver coming off the board on average, but the model had him ranked outside the top 10. The result: Samuel followed up a season in which he had 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns by producing just 864 yards and five scores.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as another sleeper in 2020 and nailing Jonathan Taylor's enormous season in 2021. Additionally, it's called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anybody who banked on players like those made a run at their league title.
The model is powered by the same people who generated projections for all three major Fantasy sites, and it beat human experts last season when there was a big difference in ranking. The projections update multiple times daily, so you're always getting the best Fantasy football advice.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2023, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2023 Fantasy football sleepers
One of the 2023 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. This will be Watson's first full season for the Browns after he was limited to six games last year while serving an 11-game suspension. The 27-year-old quarterback completed 58.2% of his passes for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing for 175 yards and a touchdown last season.
Watson was coming off a career year in 2020 prior to his suspension. He completed 70.2% of his passes for 4,823 yards with 33 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions for the Texans. Watson posted career-highs in completion percentage, yards and touchdowns and finished with the fifth-most Fantasy football points. Watson has ranked in the top five in Fantasy scoring for quarterbacks in his first three full seasons as a starter. With a full and normal offseason in Cleveland, SportsLine's model has identified him as an undervalued player in upcoming drafts. See more Fantasy football sleepers 2023 here.
Top 2023 Fantasy football breakouts
The model is also projecting Vikings receiver Jordan Addison as one of its top 2023 Fantasy football breakouts. The 23rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is expected to fill the role left behind Adam Thielen, who departed for Carolina in the offseason. Thielen saw 107 targets and had 70 catches for 716 yards and six touchdowns last year.
The added benefit for Addison this season is that Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is in the last year of his deal and will try to secure one final contract before hanging things up. In a Kenny Pickett-led offense with Pitt in 2021, Addison had 100 receptions for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns. In another offense led by a pocket passer, Addison should be able to find plenty of opportunity against defenses concerned with stopping Justin Jefferson. See more Fantasy football breakouts 2023 here.
Top 2023 Fantasy football busts
As for players to avoid, the model lists Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson as one of its 2023 Fantasy football busts. Stevenson is coming off his best season as a pro, recording 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five touchdowns. He also added 69 receptions for 421 yards and a score.
Stevenson will also likely see an uptick in his usage in 2023 after Damien Harris signed with the Bills in the offseason. However, his inability to find the end zone could be a concern for anyone taking him with their 2023 Fantasy football picks. Stevenson managed just five rushing touchdowns a season ago, while the Patriots recorded just 12 overall, tied for the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. See more Fantasy football busts 2023 here.
How to find proven 2023 Fantasy football football rankings
SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising quarterback you aren't even thinking about being taken in the middle rounds of 2023 Fantasy football drafts. This quarterback is listed as a shocking top-10 option ahead of stars like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers. You can only see who it is, and the 2023 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.
So which 2023 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2023 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.
