After ripping off six victories in a row, the New England Patriots are in a familiar spot in the AFC East standings, looking down on the rest of the division heading into Monday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo ended New England's title reign last season and was the odds-on favorite to repeat in 2021, but is sitting a half-game back. Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points at home, but in addition to betting the spread and total (41), there are also plenty of Bills vs. Patriots NFL player props to consider.
The forecast is calling for possible lake effect snow at Highmark Stadium and wind whipping at over 25 mph, so that could change the complexion of the game and your Monday Night Football NFL prop bets considerably. Stefon Diggs has caught six touchdowns in six games, and the latest NFL props at Caesars Sportsbook list him at +140 to score at any time. Before betting any NFL props for Monday Night Football, you need to see the Patriots vs. Bills prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
It can also be used to crush NFL prop picks. Last season, the player over-under prop picks went 389-310, returning over $3,000.
With Patriots vs. Bills on Monday Night Football, the model has evaluated the NFL player props and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.
Top NFL player prop bets for Bills vs. Patriots
After simulating Patriots vs. Bills 10,000 times, the model predicts that Bills quarterback Josh Allen goes over 237.5 passing yards (-115). Weather will certainly be a factor, but having a strong-armed quarterback generally helps mitigate the damage high winds can do to a passing attack. Allen is one of the strongest-armed quarterbacks in the league and is used to playing in bad weather in Buffalo.
Allen has thrown for 282 yards per game over the last two seasons. In his last start against the Patriots, on a 41-degree day last December, Allen threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a dominant 38-9 win. This is a better Patriots defense and the weather won't make life easy, but the model is still projecting 245 yards on average for Allen.
SportsLine's NFL model also says that New England wide receiver Jakobi Meyers goes over 42.5 receiving yards for a solid +105 payout. The plus-money payout makes this worth a shot, as Meyers is coming off a 98-yard receiving week against the Titans.
Meyers is the most targeted player in this offense and does the majority of his damage from the slot and on underneath routes that are less likely to be impacted by the precipitation and high winds. He's gone over 42.5 yards in 17 of his last 23 games and the model expects him to be a reliable safety valve for Mac Jones on a night where that's particularly valuable.
How to make NFL player prop bets for Patriots vs. Bills
In addition, the model has a plus-money prop payout on a star's performance you'll want to jump on. You need to see the model's analysis before making any Patriots vs. Bills prop bets.
Which Bills vs. Patriots prop bets should you back on Monday Night Football? And which star is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see the top New England vs. Buffalo prop picks, all from the model that's up almost $7,100 on top-rated NFL picks.