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The Kansas City Chiefs will try to continue their recent dominance of the Buffalo Bills when the two teams collide in a scintillating Sunday Night Football matchup at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are 5-1 against the Bills since Andy Reid took over as coach in 2013. That record includes two wins last season -- a 26-17 victory in Week 6 and a 38-24 win in the AFC Championship Game. This season the Chiefs (2-2) have started slowly but are coming off a 42-30 victory at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Bills (3-1) have won three straight games after losing their season opener to Pittsburgh. 

Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 56.5. Before you make any Bills vs. Chiefs picks or Sunday Night Football predictions, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst and Kansas City expert Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. This season he has been on fire. Through four weeks Hartstein is 18-5-1 with his NFL picks, for a winning percentage of 78.3 and a profit of $1,225. With his last 21 picks, he is an absurd 18-3.

He also has had a keen eye for the tendencies of the Chiefs, posting a 16-5 record on his last 21 spread picks involving Kansas City. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.

Now, he has locked in on Chiefs vs. Bills and released a confident against-the-spread pick. You can head to SportsLine now to see Hartstein's pick. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Bills vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Kansas City -3
  • Chiefs vs. Bills over-under: 56.5 points 
  • Chiefs vs. Bills money line: Kansas City -150, Buffalo +130 
  • KC: Patrick Mahomes leads the league in touchdown passes (14) 
  • TB: The Bills lead the league in scoring defense (11.0 points per game)
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City's running game has been on a roll. In the last two weeks, Kansas City has rushed for 386 yards on 62 carries, averaging 6.23 yards per carry. The team's 200 rushing yards last week against the Eagles was the Chiefs' second best total in their last 79 games, a stretch that dates to Week 17 of the 2016 season.

In addition, Kansas City has a game-breaking receiver in Tyreek Hill. The 5-foot-10 speedster ranks second in the NFL this season in reception yards (453). He is coming off his best game of the year, catching 11 passes for 186 yards and three touchdowns against Philadelphia.

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo has one of the best defenses -- if not the best defense -- in the NFL. Led by star linebacker Matt Milano, the Bills lead the league in scoring defense (11.0 points per game), total defense (216.8 yards per game) and passing defense (148.8 yards per game). Last week they limited the Texans to just 109 total yards in their second shutout in three games.

In addition, tight end Dawson Knox has emerged as a legitimate receiving threat. A third-round pick in 2019, Knox has four touchdown catches this season. That's the second most in the NFL and tied with Tampa Bay's Rob Gronkowski for the most among tight ends. Knox is tied with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley for the most red zone targets (six) on the team and leads the Bills in red zone receiving yards (29).

How to make Chiefs vs. Bills picks

For Sunday night's game, Hartstein is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's sharing what it is, and whom to back, only at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Chiefs? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Bills spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who has gone 16-5 on his last 21 spread picks involving the Chiefs, and find out.