Fantasy Football Believe It or Not: Mike Davis must-add, is Drew Brees back? Drop Ravens?
We're heading down the stretch in the Fantasy regular season. Heath Cummings tells you what you should, and shouldn't believe from Week 9.
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You should be racing to the waiver wire to add Mike Davis.
Chris Carson came into Week 9 nursing a hip injury and reinjured his hip in the first half against the Chargers. This is enormous news for Mike Davis. If Carson has to miss any time at all, Davis is thrust into a feature role on a run-first team. The Seahawks are the only team in the NFL that has thrown the ball on fewer than half their offensive plays. What's more, they've become really good at running the ball. After a dismal start to the season, the Seahawks are up to 4.3 YPC as a team and are third in the league with 137.1 yards per game on the ground.
Verdict: Believe it.
Just look at what Davis has done when he's been given opportunity. In Week 4 against Arizona he ran it 21 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns. He followed that up with 75 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. He didn't score in Week 9, but he did give you 107 total yards.
Perhaps the most appealing part of Davis is his ability in the passing game. He caught seven passes in Week 9 and leads Seahawks' backs in targets, catches and receiving yards. That helps prevent him from getting lost in a game like Week 9, when Seattle was down two scores. Davis is a top-20 back with upside as long as Carson is out.
Drew Brees is back as an elite Fantasy quarterback.
I guess we can stop worrying about Brees. He lit up the Rams in to the tune of 346 yards and four touchdowns, and sits atop the Week 9 quarterback standings with one game left to play. Brees is having a remarkable year, averaging a career-best 8.4 Y/A and completing 76 percent of his passes. We shouldn't have let a couple of low-volume games make us question him. Brees is one of the best, in real life and in Fantasy.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Not when his next game is a road game outdoors. The Saints just have not been the same team outdoors. It's not that Brees has been bad -- he still has a quarterback rating of 103.6 on the road -- but the team has been much more cautious. If you take out the game against the Falcons, Brees has attempted 32, 30 and 23 passes in his past three road games. Part of that has been game script, but I'd expected a similar script against a Bengals team without A.J. Green.
Brees may still be your best option to start this week, but you shouldn't expect anything close to what you got in Week 9.
Alex Collins is the only Raven you need to hold through their bye.
Well, that was disappointing. The Ravens were at home in a near must-win game against the Steelers and their offense laid an egg. Joe Flacco threw the ball 37 times, and Willie Snead was the only pass-catcher to top 50 yards. He had 58. The only touchdown was scored by Alex Collins, who only had nine carries in the game. This Ravens offense heads into the bye at 4-5 and hasn't scored more than 23 points since Week 4. This is not the type of offense you want to be counting on down the stretch.
Verdict: Believe it.
I'm going to hedge a little bit. I'm saying you can drop John Brown (one game with more than three catches in his past five), Michael Crabtree and Snead. I really don't think anyone is going to snag them from you. But I'm not saying you necessarily should drop all of these guys, especially Brown.
The Ravens come back with a home game against the Bengals, and have a truly awesome schedule for the next month. In four straight weeks they face the Raiders, Falcons, Chiefs and Buccaneers. That's five games in a row against defenses giving up more than 400 yards of offense per game. Collins should feast on those defenses and one of the receivers will probably be good each week. Guessing which receiver will be a tall task.
If you're in a roster crunch this week, I wouldn't feel bad about dropping Ravens. Just know you may be trying to pick them back up in a week.
This is the beginning of the end for Adrian Peterson.
Everything fell apart for Peterson in Week 9, and all that's left is to figure out if it was a blip or the beginning of the end. Against a great matchup and without Chris Thompson, the veteran back touched the ball just 12 times and only picked up 33 yards. Washington's defense let them down and the offense was even worse.
Throughout the year we've been waiting for Peterson to some sign of slowing, and this type of ineffectiveness against Atlanta is as good a sign as any. The Falcons had given up 4.8 yards per carry this season and 112 yards per game coming into Week 9. Peterson was at home. If he can't succeed under those circumstances, it's hard to see a game you'll feel comfortable starting him.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
I've found one. This week against Tampa Bay.
I'm not ready to say Peterson is or isn't slowing, but Washington faces a Buccaneers team surrendering 34.4 points per game, so I'm not ready to walk away yet. I'd expect Washington's defense to bounce back as well, at least in terms of turnovers and sacks. That should put Peterson in a positive game script against a bad defense, which is where he excels. If he falters against the Bucs in Week 10 you can start to panic.
I know that wasn't what you were promised. The two rookies combined for 65 receiving yards on six catches, with Miller doing most of the heavy lifting. But you do not want to give up on these receivers yet. They were both in similar situations where their teams jumped out to big leads and went very run-heavy. Cam Newton only threw 25 passes and Mitchell Trubisky only threw 20. Better days are ahead for both rookies.
Verdict: Believe it.
If anything, this game was encouraging for Miller. He saw six targets, which was a 30 percent share of the team's targets. Trubisky has averaged 32.5 attempts per game and has at least 29 attempts in six of eight games. If Miller can get even 25 percent of those targets, he's going to be a monster.
You have to dig a little deeper to find something positive for Moore. He did lead the Panthers receivers in snaps, which is pretty good indicator for the future. He also had another long run in this game and now has 107 rushing yards in his last five games. I still expect Moore to be a big part of the team's plans. In the Fantasy playoffs he faces the Browns, Saints and Falcons.
Some players are exciiting because of their immediate opportunity. Others are more upside plays in case they get that opportunity.Adam Humphries is neither, but he still needs to be owned in more than four percent of leagues. The diminutive slot receiver scored a pair of touchdowns on Sunday and led the Buccaneers with eight catches and 82 yards. I would still expect this to be an offense focused on Mike Evans, but Humphries is an add in any PPR league with more than 12 teams.
So who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 10? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 10 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
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