The Philadelphia Phillies will look to move one step closer to their first World Series appearance in 13 years as they try to take a 2-0 lead in the National League Championship Series on Wednesday. The Phillies (87-75) defeated the Padres (89-73) 2-0 in Tuesday night's matchup. Philadelphia finished third in the NL East this past season before getting hot in the 2022 MLB playoffs, sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card round before outlasting the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves 3-1 in the NLDS. San Diego, which placed second in the NL West, knocked off the New York Mets 2-1 in the Wild Card round before ousting the Los Angeles Dodgers in four games in the NLDS. Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA) is slated to start for the Padres, with Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) going for the Phillies.
The game from Petco Park in San Diego is slated to begin at 4:35 p.m. ET. Both teams' pitching staffs have come to play in the postseason as the Phillies have a staff ERA of 2.53, the third-best in MLB during the playoffs, while the Padres are fifth with a 2.76 ERA. San Diego is a -120 favorite on the money line in the latest Phillies vs. Padres odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is 7. Before making any Padres vs.Phillies picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters the league championship round on a 20-13 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning more than $400. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Padres vs. Phillies, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Padres:
- Padres vs. Phillies money line: Philadelphia +100, San Diego -120
- Padres vs. Phillies over/under: 7 runs
- Padres vs. Phillies run line: San Diego -1.5 (+180)
- PHI: The Phillies are 44-42 in road games in 2022
- SD: The Padres are 46-38 in home games this season
- Padres vs. Phillies picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Padres
Third baseman Manny Machado has decimated many pitching staffs during his MLB career and is a huge reason why the Padres were able to eliminate the favored Dodgers in the NLDS. He hit .357 in the series, including a 2-for-4 performance in the decisive Game 4 win. He had two doubles, two homers and five RBI in seven postseason games entering the series with the Phillies. During the regular season, Machado hit .298 with 32 homers, 102 RBI and 100 runs scored.
Another reason for the Padres' postseason success has been the play of outfielder Trent Grisham. Grisham came into the series with hits in six of seven playoff games, including three homers and five RBI. Grisham hit .500 against the Mets in the Wild Card round and followed that up by batting .308 against the Dodgers. During the regular season, Grisham finished with 17 homers, 53 RBI and 58 runs scored.
Why you should back the Phillies
Philadelphia is expected to counter with right-hander Nola, who has been stellar in the postseason and has not allowed an earned run in 12.2 innings of work. He defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 2-0 in the decisive Game 2 of the Wild Card round, allowing just four hits, one walk and six strikeouts in 6.2 innings. He then picked up the win in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves, a 9-1 Phillies romp, by limiting the Braves to one unearned run on five hits and two walks, while striking out six. He is 0-1 against the Padres this season, losing a 1-0 decision on June 24.
Offensively, the Phillies have a number of options, including catcher J.T. Realmuto. Realmuto entered the series on a four-game hitting streak, going 5-for-18 (.278) in the four games against the Braves. He homered once and drove in a pair of runs. Realmuto has had his moments against the Padres throughout his career, with four doubles, three triples, eight homers and 23 RBI in 39 regular-season games against them.
How to make Phillies vs. Padres picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Padres vs. Phillies? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.