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The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills are this year's top contenders for the AFC East title and will face off on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have won six straight games and sit atop the standings, while the Bills haven't won back-to-back contests since early October. Can New England stay undefeated on the road against a Buffalo team that's dominated at home in recent years? The latest Buffalo weather is calling for a chance of precipitation and high winds approaching 30 mph.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by three points in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 40.5. Before you lock in any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Patriots vs. Bills 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Patriots spread: Bills -3
  • Bills vs. Patriots over-under: 40.5 points  
  • Bils vs. Patriots money line: Bills -145, Patriots +125 
  • NE: Patriots have covered the spread in their last five games 
  • BUF: Bills have are 10-2 straight-up in their last 12 home games
Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover

New England's thrived against the spread in 2021, and only the Green Bay Packers have covered more often. The Patriots are 8-4 against the spread overall and have covered four times on the road. Buffalo's recent struggles could make it tough to hold off the well-rounded visitors in this matchup.

The Patriots have scored consistently during their hot streak. New England boasts the NFL's seventh-ranked scoring offense and averages 28 points per game. Its defense has been superb as well. The Patriots have forced 25 turnovers and lead the NFL with 19 interceptions. They've also allowed a league-low six rushing touchdowns.

Why the Bills can cover

The Patriots are 5-0 on the road, but the Los Angles Chargers (7-5) are the only winning team they've beaten away from Gillette Stadium. The combined record of the other teams is 15-33. Buffalo has the talent on offense and defense to give the visitors a challenge on Monday Night Football.

Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can top Buffalo's scoring average (29.6 points) ahead of Monday's matchup. The Bills generated 25 passing touchdowns through their first 11 games, and only three teams have tallied more in 2021. Josh Allen has struggled as of late, but is elite when he's firing on all cylinders. His defense ranks third in interceptions with 16 and is the NFL's lone team with fewer than 2,000 passing yards allowed. Only the Indianapolis Colts can top the Bills' total of 25 takeaways. Buffalo is 15-5 straight-up in its last 20 games, and a win would likely lead to a cover with such a tight spread.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks 

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 39 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Bills vs. Patriots picks at SportsLine. 

So who wins Patriots vs. Bills on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,100 on its NFL picks, and find out.