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The Kansas City Chiefs aim to bounce back on Sunday Night Football when they travel to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a battle of 2-1 teams. Kansas City slipped up in a loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, with Tampa Bay also losing last week at the hands of the Green Bay Packers. The game is also a rematch of Super Bowl LV, with the Buccaneers pulling off a 31-9 victory.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is favored by two-points in the latest Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47. Before you make any Buccaneers vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Buccaneers and just locked in its picks and Sunday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers:

  • Chiefs vs. Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -2
  • Chiefs vs. Buccaneers over/under: 47 points 
  • Chiefs vs. Buccaneers money line: Chiefs +115, Buccaneers -135 
  • KC: The Chiefs are 11-12 against the spread in their last 23 games 
  • TB: The Buccaneers are 12-10 against the spread in their last 22 games 
  • Chiefs vs. Buccaneers picks: See picks here
Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City's defense has a potentially advantageous matchup against a scuffling Tampa Bay offense. Tampa Bay is one of only two teams in the NFL without a touchdown in the first half of any game, and the Buccaneers are No. 22 in the league in overall scoring. The Bucs are hampered by injuries on the offensive line and at the skill positions, and Tampa Bay is in the bottom quartile of the NFL in points per drive, total yards, yards per drive, rushing yards, first downs, yards per carry, and third down conversion rate. 

Kansas City is also playing quite well on the defensive side, ranking in the top 10 of the NFL in yards allowed per game (314.0) and yards allowed per drive (27.3). The Chiefs are effective against the pass, giving up only 5.1 net yards per attempt, and Kansas City is in the top third of the league in rushing yards allowed (86.7 per game) and yards per carry (3.6). Kansas City has allowed only one rushing touchdown this season, and opponents are converting only 32.6% of third down chances against the Chiefs.

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Tampa Bay is 8-1 in the last nine games against AFC opponents, and the infrastructure is incredibly sound. Though the Buccaneers are struggling on offense this season, Tom Brady is a three-time MVP and seven-time champion that led the NFL in completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns in 2021. Brady has only one interception this season, and he will benefit from the return of standout wide receiver Mike Evans after a one-game suspension. 

The Buccaneers are also incredibly strong on defense, leading the NFL in points allowed per game (9.0), points allowed per drive (0.75), turnovers created (eight), turnover rate (22.2%), and rushing touchdowns allowed (zero). Tampa Bay is also in the top five of the league in total defense and yards allowed per drive, with opponents generating only 44 first downs in three games against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's third defense is top-tier, allowing opponents to convert on only 30.6% of chances, and the Buccaneers will be facing a scuffling Chiefs rushing offense that is averaging only 4.1 yards per carry and less than 100 rushing yards per game.

How to make Chiefs vs. Buccaneers picks on SNF

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with the model calling for 48 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the SNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Buccaneers vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 139-103 roll on NFL picks, and find out.