The Indianapolis Colts hit the road this week to take on a division rival in the Tennessee Titans. Indy is facing a bit of a quarterback issue, as Carson Wentz is dealing with two sprained ankles. He returned to practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. If he does not play, Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network reported that Indy could use two quarterbacks in Brett Hundley and Jacob Eason. However, at this point it seems like Wentz is on track to play.
As for the Titans, they are riding high after an overtime win over the Seattle Seahawks. After getting blown out on their home field by the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, it looks like they have gotten back on the right track. They will get a chance to prove that against a familiar opponent this weekend.
The Colts lead the all-time series 35-17 while the Titans have won two out of the past three meetings. They split the season series in 2020. Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Sunday's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
This line reopened at TEN -5.5 on Monday. It saw a slight bump up to TEN -6 on Thursday, but moved back down to TEN -5.5 on Friday.
The pick: Titans -5.5. This was actually one of my top five ATS picks of the week. The Titans have the best running back in the league in Derrick Henry, and Julio Jones had his first big game as a Titan last week. The offense could win leaning on either, as Indy's secondary has struggled mightily through the first two weeks of the season. A healthy Wentz would make this game interesting, but unfortunately we won't get that.
This total opened up at 54.5 a week and a half ago, but dropped to 50 on Monday and closed at 48 by the end of the day. It remained there.
The pick: Under 48. My lean is to the Under in this game, although I would avoid placing money on this altogether. With or without Wentz, it's hard to imagine the Colts can put up points in bunches -- even against an average defense. The Colts are averaging just 20 points per game through two contests. It's possible the Titans run away with this and put up 30-plus points, but it may be a low-scoring affair.
Derrick Henry receiving yards: Over 12.5 (-115). I'm going to let you in on a secret, because I've figured something out. With Todd Downing as Tennessee's new offensive coordinator, Henry is getting more opportunities as a receiver. No, he's not Christian McCaffrey or anything, but he's getting targets. He caught three passes in Week 1 and then a career-high six passes against the Seahawks. His Over/Under for receiving yards last week was 8.5, and he racked up 55 yards. I'm taking the Over on this prop again. Henry will catch at least two or three passes and could cross the Over with one screen pass.
Jack Doyle receptions: Over 2.5 (-145). It's difficult to find Colts props I like since we don't know what the offense will look like with a banged-up Wentz or with a two-quarterback system. Is that good for the running backs? Or is it bad, since the Colts could be trailing from beginning to end? Michael Pittman Jr. could be due to receive a good amount of targets, but Doyle Over 2.5 receptions is interesting. He has caught at least three passes in each of the first two games, and was targeted eight times last week against the Los Angeles Rams.
Randy Bullock extra points made: Over 2.5 (-130). I have been making money off of kicking props this year. This bet is virtually "will the Titans score three touchdowns?" Now, I will admit Bullock is something like the 49th kicker the Titans have tried out since the preseason and he could ruin this prop by missing one of his extra points, but I'll take it.
Flier: Ryan Tannehill to score a touchdown (+370)