Two teams at the bottom of their respective divisions will meet on Sunday as the Miami Dolphins (1-5) host the Atlanta Falcons (2-3). The Dolphins have lost five straight and recently welcomed back Tua Tagovailoa from injury, even though the quarterback's name is being floated in trade rumors. Atlanta won in London last week but its only two wins came against teams with a combined 2-9 record. The Dolphins hold a 9-4 record in the all-time series, but the Falcons have won the last two matchups.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium. Atlanta is favored by 1.5 points in the latest Dolphins vs. Falcons odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 47.5. Before entering any Falcons vs. Dolphins picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.
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- Dolphins vs. Falcons spread: Falcons -1.5
- Dolphins vs. Falcons over-under: 47.5 points
What you need to know about the Dolphins
Miami let Jacksonville end a 20-game losing streak last week, as the Jaguars hit a 53-yard field goal as time expired. The Dolphins have lost five consecutive games. Tagovailoa completed 33 of 47 passes for 329 yards and two TDs with one interception as he returned from a rib injury. Mike Gesicki had eight catches for a season-high 115 yards.
The Dolphins are worst in the league in rushing yards per game, with only 71.5 on average. The Miami offense ranks 30th in the league, and the defense is also 30th, 29th against the pass. Xavien Howard (shoulder, groin) and Byron Jones (Achilles, groin) are listed as questionable. DeVante Parker (shoulder, hamstring) is also questionable.
What you need to know about the Falcons
After 20-plus point blowouts in their first two games, the Falcons have shored things up since then and have both a winning record and positive point differential over their last three contests. Matt Ryan has been exceptionally efficient, ranking among the top 10 in completion percentage (69.1 percent), lowest interception percentage (1.5 percent) and lowest sack percentage (3.8 percent). Cordarrelle Patterson has been a revelation as an offensive weapon, as he's second on the team in both rushing (173 yards) and receiving (295 yards) while leading Atlanta with five touchdowns.
Defensively, the Falcons should have little trouble with a Dolphins' offense that ranks 32nd in rushing, 28th in passing and 29th in scoring. Atlanta has shut down the run recently by allowing just 92 rushing yards per game over its last four. The defense is coming off its most spirited effort, limiting the New York Jets to just 230 total yards in Week 6.
How to make Falcons vs. Dolphins picks
The model is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Dolphins vs. Falcons? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.