There are still 21 teams left on the bubble as we approach three weeks left until Selection Sunday. That seems like a lot, and it is, but that number will pare down as we get closer and it becomes apparent that teams have played their way either comfortably into the field or comfortably into the NIT.
Fifteen of those bubble teams are in action on Saturday, but there is only one "double bubble" game: Rutgers and Wisconsin, which tips off at noon to start a busy day. Six other bubble teams will be on the road, and while not every game is an opportunity for a Quad 1, just about all of them are of the can't-lose variety.
Gonzaga and Saint Mary's are two teams that won't have to sweat come Selection Sunday, having just locked up NCAA Tournament bids out of the West Coast Conference. That brings the total number of locks up to 11.
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on résumé: 11 | Bids secured: 0 | At-large spots remaining: 31
| Conference | Locks | Teams |
|---|---|---|
ACC | 0 | |
Big East | 0 | |
Big Ten | 1 | |
Big 12 | 2 | |
Pac-12 | 2 | |
SEC | 2 | |
American | 1 | |
Others | 2 | Gonzaga, Saint Mary's |
On the cut line
| Last Four In | Record | NET |
|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 15-10 | 77 |
| Arkansas | 17-9 | 21 |
| West Virginia | 15-11 | 22 |
| Texas A&M | 19-7 | 31 |
| First Four Out | Record | NET |
| North Carolina | 16-10 | 45 |
| Wake Forest | 18-7 | 33 |
| New Mexico | 19-7 | 55 |
| Penn State | 15-11 | 61 |
| Next Four Out | Record | NET |
| Seton Hall | 16-11 | 65 |
| Arizona State | 18-9 | 73 |
| Clemson | 19-7 | 64 |
| Utah State | 20-7 | 36 |
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
Saturday's 'Double Bubble' games
Rutgers at Wisconsin
12 p.m. | Big Ten Network, fuboTV (Try for free)
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| Rutgers has been fading fast and falling down the bracket. The Scarlet Knights have lost three straight games, including their second Quad 3 opportunity of the season at home to Nebraska. They only have two games left against teams with no real shot at the bracket. This is not one of them. | |
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| Wisconsin picked up its first home win in almost a month against Michigan on Tuesday. The Badgers have bad MOV-based metrics, mostly because they rank 155th in scoring margin and in part because they have not played well at home. This is the second of four games out of five at home. | |
Other bubble teams in action Saturday
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| at UConn, noon | Fox, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Pirates got a much-needed win over Georgetown, which was more about avoiding disaster than anything else. If Seton Hall is to make the NCAA Tournament, it needs to take advantage of its remaining schedule, which has nothing but teams at the top of the Big East. | |
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| vs. Texas Tech, noon | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) -- If West Virginia is going to make the NCAA Tournament, it will have to take care of business on its home floor. That is not as easy as it sounds since this is the Big 12. Still, this game is as "easy" as it gets. | |
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| vs. Tennessee, 1 p.m. | CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App -- The Wildcats look to sweep the Volunteers, who are coming off a big win over Alabama. Kentucky's résumé is lacking in higher quality wins, and this is the last chance for one before the SEC Tournament. | |
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| vs. Florida, 2 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Arkansas is one of those teams whose résumé does not match its metrics. The win at Kentucky stands out, though. Nick Smith, Jr. is still working his way into game shape, and the Razorbacks could really use him down the stretch of this season. Regardless, this is a game against a non-contender at home, so it's a must win. | |
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| at TCU, 2 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) -- TCU has been reeling as star Mike Miles, Jr. recovers from an injury. He may be back to face the Cowboys, which would be bad news for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had their five game winning streak snapped by Kansas on Tuesday. Now, they hit the road for two straight. They cannot afford to start a losing streak now. | |
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| at No. 15 Miami, 2 p.m. -- The Demon Deacons are still looking for their first Quad 1 win despite having beaten Duke and North Carolina at home. That's life in the ACC this season. This game is the first of back-to-back opportunities to break through in Quad 1. | |
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| at Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m. | SEC Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Bulldogs already have four Quad 2 losses and are just 5-9 against the top two quadrants. They do not have any bad losses, but a heavy Quad 4 nonconference schedule is dragging them down. Their remaining schedule lacks opportunities to really impress the selection committee, so they need to stay in the conversation until those chances arrive in the conference tournament. | |
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| at Missouri, 6 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Aggies begin a challenging finishing schedule with a game at Missouri that would be their best win of the season if they get it. Texas A&M did a lot of damage to its tournament résumé in nonconference play with a bad schedule and two Quad 4 losses. It needs to finish strong against the better part of its conference schedule. | |
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| at Louisivlle, 7 p.m. | ACC Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Clemson has played a poor schedule, including a bottom-20 nonconference schedule, and taken three bad losses. The Tigers have not done enough to make up for that. Losing to Louisville would end their at-large hopes. | |
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| vs. Nevada, 8 p.m. | CBS Sports Network, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App -- Utah State has zero Quad 1 wins and two Quad 4 losses. The Aggies desperately need any higher-quality wins they can get. Nevada would not be a Quad 1 win, but it would still be their best win of the season. Utah State will not be able to earn an at-large bid until it gets to the conference tournament, but it needs to win games like this to keep that hope alive. | |
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| at Vanderbilt, 8:30 p.m. | SEC Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- I have kept Auburn on the bubble because of its finishing schedule, which includes three Quad 1 games. The Tigers do not have a great record against that group of teams, either. Vanderbilt has been dangerous lately, so Auburn would do well to win here. | |
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| at Minnesota, 9 p.m. | Big Ten Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Penn State breathed some life into its marginal hopes to make the NCAA Tournament with a dominant win over Illinois on Tuesday. The Nittany Lions have a schedule that gives them a chance to make a run at a bid, but they cannot stub their toe here. | |
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| vs. Stanford, 10 p.m. | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) -- USC is hanging on after losing at Oregon State on Saturday. The Trojans need to beat the Pac-12 also-rans, which are numerous, and then take their chances with Arizona the final week of conference play. | |
All references to NCAA tournament selection records and trends refer only to tournaments going back to 1994 with the exception of 2021. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.
