The worst the Chiefs have finished in points in the Patrick Mahomes era is sixth, and honestly, that feels like their floor. As long as he's the QB, this is going to be an elite offense, and that should especially be true with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce still around. What more needs to be said? Well, for Fantasy purposes, there actually isn't all that much to be said about this offense at this point. The question is whether Clyde Edwards-Helaire can change that and give us something else to talk about.
Record: 14 - 2 (1)
PPG: 29.6 (6)
YPG: 415.8 (1)
Pass YPG: 303.4 (1)
Rush YPG: 112.4 (16)
PAPG: 39.4 (3)
RAPG: 25.2 (23)
2020 Fantasy finishes
Number to know: 15
That's how many carries Edwards-Helaire had inside the opponent's 10-yard line in 2020 -- inside the Green Zone. That's not a huge number -- 51 players had at least 10 -- but it does highlight that he wasn't lacking for opportunities to score. He ended up with just one touchdown on those 15 carries, making him the only player with at least 15 opportunities not to score at least twice. Is that just bad luck? Or is Edwards-Helaire too small to be an effective runner when the field shrinks? Among the players who had at least 10 Green Zone carries, the average score rate was 29.3%, which means given 15 attempts, the average back would score around four touchdowns. If Edwards-Helaire can even be average in that regard, his upside looks a lot higher than it did as a rookie.
69 carries, 20 RB targets, 115 WR targets, 20 TE targets
Chris Towers' projections
|QB||Patrick Mahomes||PA: 613, YD: 4967, TD: 40, INT: 9; RUSH -- ATT: 54, YD: 244, TD: 2|
|RB||Clyde Edwards-Helaire||CAR: 247, YD: 1084, TD: 7; TAR: 73, REC: 54, YD: 430, TD: 3|
|RB||Darrel Williams||CAR: 104, YD: 439, TD: 3; TAR: 18, REC: 15, YD: 110, TD: 1|
|WR||Tyreek Hill||TAR: 139, REC: 89, YD: 1285, TD: 10|
|WR||Mecole Hardman||TAR: 75, REC: 44, YD: 631, TD: 5|
|WR||Demarcus Robinson||TAR: 63, REC: 38, YD: 495, TD: 4|
|TE||Travis Kelce||TAR: 148, REC: 103, YD: 1339, TD: 9|
Can Clyde Edwards-Helaire still be the guy?
We got a bit out over our skis last year, with Edwards-Helaire ending up a borderline first-round pick in what ended up a pretty disappointing rookie season. He didn't live up to that billing at all, scoring just five touchdowns in 13 games. However, remember that while most of the rookie running backs were exploding down the stretch, Edwards-Helaire missed a game with an illness and then suffered an injury in Week 14. He'll get another crack at being the RB1 and could be a nice post-hype pick for 2021.
Fantasy Football Today Newsletter
Know What Your Friends Don't
Get tips, advice and news to win your league - all from the FFT podcast team.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
There was an error processing your subscription.
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
The reality is, for as great as this offense is, there really hasn't been much room for a third option in the passing game to really shine. Hardman was third on the team with 62 targets last season, and Sammy Watkins is the only player besides Kelce or Hill to have more than 62 targets over the past three seasons -- and that came when Hill missed four games in 2019. However, if someone was to make a leap, you figure it would be Hardman, who continues to flash upside as a big-play guy. He would probably need an injury to Hill to have the opportunity to be a consistent Fantasy option, but if you're looking for cheap upside in this offense, he's the guy.
Edwards-Helaire needs to be better in 2021 than he was as a rookie. If he can do that -- if he can be a better pass catcher and be more effective near the goal line -- there is top-five upside in this offense. I'm higher on him than just anyone else on our staff because I do expect him to be better in those facets, and I'll buy into a back in this offense with so little competition for touches. I expect close to top-12 production, with the potential for even more.
I'm not saying Kelce will bust -- he's my No. 4 overall player -- but he's the biggest risk in this offense. He's likely the first player from this team to go off the board in nearly every draft, and he's about to turn 32. Sure, his age-31 season was his best ever, but that also means we're drafting him at the peak of his value. Injuries have been a non-factor for Kelce even as he's reached his 30's, but that may not stay true forever. Father Time is undefeated, and now it's just a question of how long Kelce can keep outrunning him.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.