Preseason football is here, and that means it's crunch time for Fantasy Football draft prep. The quarterback position has undergone a lot of changes, and in 2020 we saw a clear Tier 1 of difference makers for the first time in a while. How will that impact a landscape that had shifted toward waiting to draft the position in one-quarterback leagues? We can't wait to find out, but for now, as always there will be value if you wait for it. There will also be quarterbacks who are over drafted, and that's what we'll be talking about
Today, we're tapping the Fantasy Football Today team to gauge their quarterback busts who they will be avoiding in all drafts for the 2021 season. Without further ado, let's dive into it.
Quarterback busts
Jamey Eisenberg's picks
I'd be fine drafting Rodgers as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback this season, but not at his current Average Draft Position on CBS Sports. He's being selected as the No. 6 quarterback toward the end of Round 3, and that's crazy to me. He's even going ahead of Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, and I would rather have those two quarterbacks this year. Rodgers was amazing last year when he was the NFL's MVP, and he finished as the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback at 29.2 points per game. But now he has to produce at that level again, and I'm not sure that's realistic at 37. Remember, prior to 2020, he averaged 23.0 Fantasy points per game or less for three years in a row. If he's closer to that range, which is still respectable, you'll regret drafting him as a potential top-five Fantasy quarterback. At best, wait for Rodgers with a mid-round pick in all leagues.
Based on the CBS Sports ADP, the one quarterback who jumps off the page as a bust candidate is Justin Herbert. He's currently being selected as the No. 4 quarterback in Round 3, and I just can't buy him in that range, especially since he's going ahead of Kyler Murray, Prescott and Wilson. I like Herbert, and I would happily draft him as a No. 1 quarterback this year. He was amazing as a rookie when he averaged 26.3 Fantasy points per game, and he should have the chance for another stellar campaign in his sophomore season. But drafting him that high is doing so at his ceiling, and he could easily regress with a new coaching staff, especially if his pass attempts come down from 39.7 per game. The Chargers defense should be better this season with guys like Derwin James and Joey Bosa healthy, among others, and maybe the run game even improves with a better offensive line. If I can draft Herbert with a mid-round pick, after Murray, Prescott and Wilson, then I'm all in. But I'm avoiding him at his current cost if he's being selected in Round 3.
Dave Richard's picks
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
I'm not sure if I am comfortable taking ANY quarterback at 37th overall, much less Rodgers. But that's his mid-August ADP on CBS Sports, which is way too high. Sadly, Fantasy fish tend to gravitate toward over-drafting the prior year's MVP and it's proven to be a bad move. Not even Patrick Mahomes nor Lamar Jackson were as good as they were following their monster years. I'm scared of Rodgers underwhelming like he did in 2018 or 2019 when he averaged below 22 Fantasy points per game both seasons. And even if he does happen to register another good season, it's unlikely he'll match the preposterous 29.1 Fantasy points per game he just finessed. Green Bay's schedule is much tougher -- they have the AFC North and NFC West on their plates, plus dates with the Chiefs and Washington, not to mention an improving Vikings squad twice. No cupcakes against the Titans or Falcons like Rodgers had a year ago! It's a tough road with a barely-improved receiving corps and an offensive line that has some question marks.
Deshaun Watson, Texans
What doesn't need to be said is what's happening to Watson off the field. The accusations are gross. What does need to be said is that Watson has yet to take a practice snap as the starting quarterback for the Texans this summer. It basically suggests the Texans coaches don't think he will play for them this season, or maybe ever again. So all Watson has to do to help your Fantasy team is get cleared of the charges against him, then get traded, then get into game shape and learn a new offense. That's it. Just four incredibly massive steps. Watson isn't worth even your final draft pick.
Heath Cummings' picks
Before we go any further, I need you to look at my rankings and see that I have Allen as my QB3. I don't think he's bad. I do think taking him in Round 2 is bad, and that's where his ADP is. His ADP is also a round higher than any QB not named Mahomes. I made a similar argument against taking Mahomes and Jackson so early coming off their great year. Allen will likely regress a little bit off his career year and there's an increasing risk each year that the rushing production falls off. Don't draft him before Round 4 and you don't have to worry near as much about him busting.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Speaking of regression, Rodgers posted a 9.0% touchdown rate last year, which was nearly 50% higher than his career mark (6.3%), which happens to be one of the best active marks in the NFL. Rodgers' current ADP at the 3-4 turn is a round higher than Wilson and Prescott, both of whom I'd prefer straight up. It's also three rounds ahead of Ryan Tannehill, who I have projected for two fewer Fantasy points. Rodgers will likely be a top-10 quarterback this year, but don't bet on him finishing top-five again.
Chris Towers' picks
I feel pretty confident saying Roethlisberger had one of the worst 33-touchdown seasons in NFL history in 2020. Despite throwing the ball 608 times, the third-most attempts in the NFL, he finished just 16th in passing yards, ranking 29th among qualifiers in yards per attempt. I could see him taking a step forward a year further removed from his elbow surgery, and he certainly has the talent around him to put together one last big season if he's right. However, Roethlisberger didn't look comfortable dealing with the pass rush last season, and I'm not sure Pittsburgh's offensive line is likely to be any better. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada is expected to install more play action elements and incorporate a lot more pre-snap motion into the offense, which could be what the Steelers need to get this thing going, but I also worry that asking Roethlisberger to re-introduce elements like playing under center rather than in the shotgun at this point in his career might carry with it enough growing pains that it ends up not being worth it. Roethlisberger is a boom-or-bust candidate at QB, and I think there's a chance the bottom completely falls out in 2021.
This is less of a "Baker Mayfield is going to play significantly worse than he did last season" thing and more of a "I just don't have any interest in drafting Mayfield" thing. He's ranked 30th for me at the position, and while I think there's a pretty good chance he outperforms plenty of the players ahead of him, I'd still rather take my chances on the upside of Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston, Trey Lance, Cam Newton, or Justin Fields than settle for Mayfield. He has value as a streamer opening the season against the Chiefs and Texans, but it's worth remembering he finished just 26th in points per game last season. Playing in what will likely be a low-volume passing offense and without much rushing upside, Mayfield would probably need to play like a top-five passer in the NFL to be a top-12 QB, and I'm just not willing to bet on that. He's a decent high-floor QB2 in leagues where you can start two, but you should be aiming for difference-making upside at QB, and Mayfield just doesn't have an easy path to that.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
