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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will try to defeat the Atlanta Falcons for a fourth straight time on Sunday when they visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Buccaneers (8-3) lead the NFC South by three games, with Atlanta and New Orleans both at 5-6 entering Week 13. These teams met in Week 2, with Tampa Bay easing to a 48-25 victory behind five touchdown passes from Tom Brady. The former Patriot leads the NFL's top passing and scoring offense, while the Falcons yield the second-most points in the NFL. The Bucs rallied for a 38-31 victory against the Colts last week, while the Falcons defeated the Jaguars, 21-14.  

Kickoff from Atlanta is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Bucs are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 50.5. Before you make any Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Sunday's Buccaneers vs. Falcons matchup from all angles and just revealed its coveted picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Buccaneers:  

  • Buccaneers vs. Falcons spread: Tampa Bay -10.5
  • Buccaneers vs. Falcons: 50.5 points 
  • Buccaneers vs. Falcons money line: Tampa Bay -550, Atlanta +400 
  • TB: Buccaneers are 1-5 against the spread on the road after covering last week 
  • ATL: Falcons are 0-3 against the spread versus winning teams this season
Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Tampa Bay is 4-0 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season and Brady has never lost to the Falcons. He is 9-0, going 8-1 against the spread and winning five of the matchups by at least 14 points. The Bucs score 31.5 points per game to lead the NFL and Atlanta yields 27.5. Brady has a league-high 30 TD passes to go with 3,403 passing yards (second). Favorite target Rob Gronkowski had 123 yards last week, while wideouts Chris Godwin (67 catches for 808 yards) and Mike Evans (640 yards, 10 TDs) are always dangerous.

The Falcons allow almost 125 yards per game on the ground (24th in NFL), so Leonard Fournette could have another big day. The running back had a career-high four TDs and had 135 total yards against the Colts last week. The Bucs have struggled against the pass, but remain No. 1 unit against the run (81 yards per game). That means Matt Ryan will need to perform, and he threw three interceptions in the last meeting. The Bucs have 23 takeaways, fourth-most in the league, while the Falcons have just 11. Tampa Bay is 5-1 against the spread in its past six Week 13 games.

Why the Falcons can cover

Ryan still has the skills to put up big numbers, but he has lacked weapons. The 14-year veteran quarterback has 2,617 yards and 16 TDs, and he can link up with tight end Kyle Pitts for big plays. The rookie leads the team with 45 catches for 661 yards (14.7 per reception). The health of Cordarrelle Patterson also has been critical to the team's success. The receiver/running back had 135 total yards and two TDs in last week's victory. He has 911 total yards and nine TDs. Atlanta's offense is averaging 6.7 yards per play when he is on the field and 3.9 when he isn't.      

Ryan could surprise a Bucs secondary that has been ravaged by injuries and yielded 306 passing yards and three TDs last week against Carson Wentz. The home team is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings between the teams. Dante Fowler had a sack last week to give him 3.5 in eight starts, and he has forced three fumbles. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons.

How to make Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks

The model has zeroed in on Sunday's Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay matchup, and is leaning Over on the point total, with the model saying the quarterbacks will combine for more than 500 passing yards. It also says that one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Buccaneers on Sunday? And which side of the spread cashes more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Buccaneers spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 131-94 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.