Just four teams are left standing as the dust has officially settled on the divisional round. After the Browns, Rams, Ravens, and Saints were all sent packing over the weekend, it'll be Chiefs vs. Bills and Packers vs. Buccaneers to headline Championship Sunday with each squad looking to represent their conference in Super Bowl LV. As we approach these monumental games with a trip to Tampa on the line, it's about time we check in on the NFL odds over at William Hill Sportsbook to see who has the best chances of not just getting to the Super Bowl but winning the whole dang thing.
To no real surprise, the defending champion Chiefs still sit atop this list at +200. Unlike previous weeks, however, Kansas City's odds have held true. Leading up to the divisional round, Andy Reid's club had consistently seen its odds decrease as other contenders throughout the rest of the league started to reveal themselves. According to CBS Sports research analyst Stephen Oh's simulations, the Chiefs also have the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl, doing so in 30.3% of sims. They also beat the Bills in the AFC Championship 53.6% of the time. However, the status of Patrick Mahomes, who exited Sunday's win over the Browns and is currently in concussion protocol, will be worth watching throughout the week. If he's held out of the AFC Championship Game against Buffalo, that'd naturally alter Kansas City's chances of repeating and getting out of the AFC.
Before we jump into the rest of these teams, here's a look at the entire list of William Hill's Super Bowl odds entering the conference championships.
- Kansas City Chiefs +200
- Green Bay Packers +225
- Buffalo Bills +325
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400
As has been the case for the past few weeks, the Packers still own the top odds in the NFC and there's a case to be made that they are the hottest team remaining in the postseason. This NFC title game will be a battle between two of the game's greatest quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Green Bay wins this head-to-head with the Buccaneers in 56.2% of Oh's simulations and wins the Super Bowl a quarter of the time. That said, Tampa Bay does have slim value, winning the Super Bowl in 20.6% of sims. It should be noted that both of these teams did square off against one another earlier this season. Back in Week 6, the Bucs handed Green Bay its first loss of the season in a rather convincing fashion, 38-10. The Bucs defense baited Rodgers into two interceptions while Brady tossed two scores in the rout. If Tampa Bay's defense can step up again, the Bucs are an intriguing play.
Meanwhile, the Bills win the Super Bowl 24% of the time, but that could change depending on Mahomes' status possibly impacting the AFC Championship drastically. Even if Mahomes is ready to go, however, Josh Allen does have the arm talent to go toe-to-toe with him as the Bills totaled the second-most yards and points per game through the regular season. Defensively, Sean McDermott's team also held the Ravens offense to just three points. While it may be a tall task to repeat that performance if they are able to put a dent into the Chiefs offense, that could give Josh Allen a puncher's chance.