The Dallas Cowboys get Pro Bowl running back Ezekiel Elliott back on Sunday, just in time for a date with the Seattle Seahawks. The Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites, up 1.5 from where the line opened. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is unchanged from an open of 47.

Before you lock in any bets, you need to see what veteran handicapper Josh Nagel is picking.

Three weeks ago, he told SportsLine readers to back Seattle as five-point underdogs against the red-hot Eagles. The result: the Seahawks won outright for another easy cash.

Amazingly, it improved his record to 9-1 picking for or against the Seahawks. Anyone who has followed his advice is up big.

Part of his success: a West Coast insider, he's a whiz at picking Seahawks games, regardless of who they're playing. And he just locked in a strong play for Cowboys-Seahawks on Sunday.

Nagel knows that during Elliott's six-game suspension, the Cowboys had just one 100-yard rusher. Comparatively, Elliott hit triple-digits on the ground four times this season.

And despite missing almost half the 2017 campaign, Elliott is still 16th in rushing yards at 783, just 23 fewer than Falcons lead back Devonta Freeman, who's 11th on the list. 

SportsLine's advanced projection model says Elliott will go for over 100 yards from scrimmage and find the end zone on 22 carries in his return.

Then there's the Seahawks, who were lit up 42-7 at home against the Rams last Sunday. It was a complete meltdown all-around, and Wilson was sacked seven times. The team's top receiver was running back J.D. McKissic, who went for a dismal 38 yards.

But just because the Cowboys are getting reinforcements and the Seahawks are coming off an embarrassing loss doesn't mean Dallas can cover a spread that's already gone up two points.

Cowboys tackle Tyron Smith is reportedly dealing with a sprained knee and his availability for Sunday's game is up in the air. Dallas struggled to protect QB Dak Prescott without him. Reports over the weekend said Smith would try to suit up, and fellow starting tackle La'el Collins is also questionable.

Whereas Seattle has lost three straight at home, they've won four of their last five on the road, beating the 49ers, Cardinals, Giants, and Rams. They also beat the NFC-leading Eagles at home. And the underdog is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings between these two teams.

SportsLine's model says Seahawks QB Russell Wilson will throw for over 250 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday afternoon. Tight end Jimmy Graham is the best bet to find the end zone.

Nagel thinks Seahawks vs. Cowboys will go Over, but there's one team he knows is a very strong play to cover. He's sharing which one it is over at SportsLine.

So which side of Seahawks-Cowboys should you take? Visit SportsLine now to see what huge x-factor determines Seahawks-Cowboys, and what team is a very strong play to cover, all from the handicapper who's nailed nine of his last 10 Seahawks picks.