The New England Patriots (6-4) will visit the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots will trot out one of the best defenses in the league, as the unit is ranked sixth in total defense and allows only 328 yards per game. Atlanta is looking to secure its fifth win of the season as the Falcons compete for a playoff spot in the competitive NFC. Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson is inactive with an ankle injury.
Kickoff from Mercedes Benz Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is favored by seven points in the latest Falcons vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 47. Before locking in your Patriots vs. Falcons picks, make sure you check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-89 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Patriots vs. Falcons 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's Thursday Night Football picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Falcons:
- Falcons vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -7
- Falcons vs. Patriots over-under: 47 points
- Falcons vs. Patriots money line: New England -330, Atlanta +260
- NE: Patriots are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games
- ATL: Under is 5-0 in Falcons' last five Thursday games
Why the Patriots can cover
Cornerback J.C. Jackson has stepped into the No. 1 corner role effectively. He leads the NFL with 14 pass deflections while snagging a team-high five interceptions. The Maryland product is fourth on the team with 38 total tackles. Jackson picked off two passes in Week 2 against the New York Jets. He accomplished the same feat against the Carolina Panthers in Week 9.
Linebacker Matthew Judon has been sensational since coming over to New England in free agency. He leads the team with 10 tackles for loss and is tied for fourth in the NFL with 9.5 sacks. The former Ravens star has recorded a sack in seven games this year, including three games with at least 1.5. Judon is also fifth on the team with 37 total tackles, with 23 solo.
Why the Falcons can cover
Matt Ryan has completed 68 percent of his passes for 2,274 yards with 15 passing touchdowns. The Boston College product has thrown for more than 300 yards in four games this season. His best outing came in Week 9 against the New Orleans Saints, when he went 23-of-30 for a season-high 343 yards and two touchdowns.
Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts leads the team with 40 catches for 606 yards and a touchdown. Pitts is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses due to his unique combination of size, speed, and sure hands. The 2021 fourth overall pick leads Atlanta with 67.3 receiving yards per game. Pitts recorded back-to-back 100-yard performances against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, combining for 16 receptions for 282 yards with one touchdown.
How to make Falcons vs. Patriots picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 47 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Falcons vs. Patriots picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Patriots vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Falcons spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,500 on its NFL picks, and find out.