Underdogs win in the NFL, and Week 4 of the 2020 season has plenty of opportunities for the betting favorite to go down. The Week 4 schedule features four games with NFL point spreads of a field goal or less, and four more games between a field goal and a touchdown. Even prohibitive favorites like Ravens and Rams aren't immune to potential upsets, which means tough decisions in your NFL office pool picks.

How do you lock down the winning Week 4 NFL confidence pool picks? Do you go straight chalk and pick favorites, or do you sprinkle in upsets with your NFL football pool picks? Before you make your NFL picks, you need to see the Week 4 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven model.

This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. It's off to a hot 34-13 start to the 2020 season, and anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has simulated the entire Week 4, 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Go to SportsLine to see them.

Top Week 4 NFL office pool predictions

One of the top Week 4 NFL pick'em predictions from the model: The Cincinnati Bengals win comfortably at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Joe Burrow has been steady in his first month as an NFL starting quarterback, throwing for 821 yards and five touchdowns despite the Bengals starting 0-2-1.

Cincinnati played the Eagles to the limit in Week 3, forcing overtime and finishing with a 23-23 tie. Burrow has continued to improve despite being hit an astounding 18 times (with eight sacks), as he passed for 312 yards and two scores against Philadelphia. 

The Jaguars are 1-2 and riding a two-game losing streak, falling to the Titans two weeks ago and the Dolphins last week. Jacksonville's defense gave up 294 yards to the Dolphins, while the offense turned the ball over twice. Veteran Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick also threw two touchdown passes to out-play Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew. That's a big reason why the model has Cincinnati winning this game in 60 percent of simulations.

How to make Week 4 NFL office pool picks

The model also made the call on every other Week 4 game and has strong picks for potentially close games like Colts vs. Bears and Bengals vs. Jaguars. It's also calling for a favored Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks at SportsLine

So who should you pick in every Week 4 NFL game? And which Super Bowl favorite goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to get optimal NFL office pool picks, all from the advanced computer model that has ranked in the Top 10 on straight-up picks three of the last four years and is 34-13 this season.