The marquee matchup for Super Bowl LV is obviously Patrick Mahomes versus Tom Brady. Mahomes has been playing great ball all year; Brady's been mostly great with some occasional lousy passing (two of his three interceptions against the Packers were brutal throws, for instance). Mahomes' offensive line isn't in as good of shape so that edge goes to Brady, but Mahomes is more mobile and gives the Chiefs an added dimension to an already strong offense.
My pick for the game is Kansas City to win and cover three points, though I expect a close, high-scoring game given that both of these teams are built on offense. As such, many of the prop bets I'm eyeing involve overs.
All lines are from William Hill Sports Book
Buccaneers Over 27.5 points (+110)
Tampa Bay's been scoring plenty against everybody, posting at least 30 points in each of its past six games. That includes matchups against pretty good defenses in New Orleans and Green Bay. The Chiefs defense might be close to the level of those defenses, but not better. It has allowed at least 24 points in four of its past six (and it would have conceivably been five of the past six if Rashard Higgins held on to the football three weeks ago). I expect the Bucs, in their home stadium, to topple their implied team total, even if they don't win. Getting a little juice on the bet is the cherry on top.
More I like
Chris Godwin Over 73.5 receiving yards (-125)
Maybe my favorite stat of the week: Godwin has accounted for 23.9% of Brady's yardage in the regular-season games they played together in and 25.9% in the playoffs. If he stays within the middle of those percentages on Sunday and Brady throws for 300 yards, this will be a winner. Godwin has reached or exceeded 79 yards in three of his past four games, and the Chiefs are coming off a game where slot receiver Cole Beasley doused them for nearly 90 yards. Godwin (53% slot rate) is a prime candidate to shine.
Travis Kelce Over 7.5 receptions (-140)
Aside from Mahomes, Kelce is the constant in the Chiefs offense. He's come through with at least seven grabs in 10 straight games, scored at least one touchdown in six straight games and has at least 98 receiving yards in five of his past six. The Buccaneers have an aggressive pass rush mentality but play a lot of zone coverage, which is the perfect combo platter for Kelce to feast on. Other tight ends have done exactly that -- the position has a 75% catch rate against Tampa Bay with a pair of touchdowns over the past four weeks. A tight end has scored and/or exceeded 70 yards in five of the Bucs' past seven. Kelce didn't miss a single target back in Week 12, turning in an 8-82-0 line against these same Buccaneers. The odds are steeper than I'd like, but it's probably the safest prop bet you could make.
Leonard Fournette Over 48.5 rushing yards (-115)
Fournette has taken over the Bucs backfield, playing nearly 70% of the snaps in each of the past two playoff games. With that work he's filed a minimum of 12 carries and 55 rush yards in each. Kansas City's run defense looked good against the Bills (3.6 yards per carry), but Buffalo was a weak running team all year. The Browns (5.3) and Falcons (4.6) are recent examples of teams that were successful running the ball against the Chiefs' starting defense. This is my favorite Fournette prop, though if you want to save on the juice you could also consider the over on 11.5 rush attempts.
Squeezing the juice
Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady both over 299.5 passing yards (+170)
I view this prop as more of "Will Tom Brady get over 300 yards?" because it's bloody likely Mahomes finds north of 300 yards. Mahomes' yardage prop is at 334.5 as it is, and the Bucs gave up over 300 passing yards to Aaron Rodgers and *checks notes twice* Taylor Heinicke this postseason. Brady has passed for over 300 yards in four of his past six games, he notched 345 yards against the Chiefs in Week 12, and the Chiefs have let up at least 287 yards through the air in three of their past four. I know, it's not 300. But given the juice on the bet and the likelihood of a high scoring game between two teams that love to throw the ball, it's a bet with really good value baked in.
Rob Gronkowski anytime TD (+250)
I just really like the odds here. The Chiefs have allowed a tight end to score in three of their past four and four of their past six. Gronkowski is always in play in the red zone, especially in a game of this magnitude with a quarterback he's known forever. I know we're coming off a game where Cameron Brate scored and Gronk didn't, but this seems like a chance worth taking.
Which Super Bowl LV prop bets should you bet TODAY? And which prop would bring a MASSIVE 100-1? ... Join SportsLine right now to see where the best values are for this year's prop bets, all from a team of Vegas insiders with decades of experience crushing the NFL!