If I've learned anything betting the NFL over the years, it's that you want to celebrate great weeks because they're few and far between, but you never want to brag about them because a bad week is just around the corner. So I'm going to give myself a quick pat on the back for going 3-0 in this column last week and say that I hope you followed along with me, but that's the end of it.
We're onto Week 4.
In the interest of full disclosure, Week 4 is not a week I'm in love with. When I looked at the board last week, there were plenty of games that stuck out like sore thumbs. This week doesn't seem as favorable, but I do have three plays I believe we can take advantage of.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 4? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join host Will Brinson to break down their best bets and size up every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
I'm always inclined to take a look at the over when it comes to Cowboys home games. If we go back to AT&T Stadium opening for the 2009 season, the over has gone 52-40-1 overall for Cowboys home games. Since the start of the 2018 season, it's gone 12-6, including 1-0 this season. Through three weeks of the 2020 season, Cowboys games have featured an average of 61.7 points per game, and only the Vikings and Falcons (two teams that are both 0-3) have allowed more points than the 97 the Cowboys have given up this season. The Browns defense isn't much better. Cleveland might be 2-1, but it has a point differential of -13 after allowing 87 points in three games. This total feels too low.
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2. Chargers at Buccaneers: Buccaneers -7 (-110)
Yeah, I'm OK with fading Justin Herbert for the time being. Last week I did so with Herbert as a home favorite, and while he's on the road and getting a touchdown this week, we're still good here. Tom Brady looked a bit shaky in his Tampa debut but has rebounded nicely since. He picked Denver apart last week, throwing for three touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt. Now, Denver's not a very good team, but it was more Brady's arm strength that I cared about. It's still not what it used to be, but he's not toast, either. And going up against a rookie with plenty of talent, but a lot of flaws to go with it, I like Tampa here at home. I'm good taking this anywhere up to Tampa -9.
My wife has Carson Wentz on her fantasy team, so believe me when I tell you I know all about how badly Carson Wentz has played this season. Regular readers of my NFL picks know, however, that I like to buy on bad news and go against public perception. Yes, Wentz has been bad, but we don't even know who the 49ers will be starting at QB this week, and it's not like either of their options are world-beaters. So for the 49ers to be touchdown favorites in this spot, when we don't know who their QB is, and they're dealing with a host of injuries, it seems like a good time to go against the grain. Oh, and the fact that Kyle Shanahan's 49ers teams are only 5-9-1 ATS (3-9-1 during the regular season) as home favorites is the icing on the cake here.