russell-wilson-seahawks.jpg

I'm so grateful gambling exists because if it wasn't for betting and fantasy sports, I don't know how I'd cope with being a Chicago Bears fan. I mean, the only solace I was able to take away from watching the Bears get hammered by the Cleveland Browns last week was having a winning weekend with my bets. Not only did I go 2-1 with my official plays here, but during the Bears game, I fired on the Browns -3.5 live because Cleveland had been moving the ball with ease, while the Bears couldn't protect Justin Fields for more than 1.5 seconds.

If I would have had to watch that and lose bets, it might've broken me mentally.

Now, unfortunately, the Bears are scheduled to play another game this weekend. While that's probably not going to do any good for my mental well-being, the good news is it gives me all the motivation I need to have another winning weekend.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

Panthers at Cowboys: Panthers +4.5 (-110)

Latest Odds: Dallas Cowboys -4.5

Is there anything you'd rather do than fade the Cowboys after they played well in a national spotlight game? "Did you hear the news? The Cowboys are good again!" I mean, sure, maybe they're good, or maybe they just beat up on a lousy team and are now being overvalued against a Panthers team that's been solid.

I'm leaning toward the latter!

Defensively, the Panthers have been monsters. They lead the NFL in sack rate (13.9 percent) and pressure rate (49.5 percent). Offensively, even without Christian McCaffrey, they've shown they can move the ball. Sam Darnold hasn't been spectacular, but he's avoiding the dumb mistakes that seem to come with playing in a Jets uniform. I know the Cowboys defense looked good against Philadelphia on Monday night. However, this is still a unit that hasn't done much to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, making them difficult to trust against competent teams.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Panthers 24

Washington at Falcons: Football Team Over 24.5 (+100)

Defense in the NFL has become rather simplistic in recent years. You either get pressure on the opposing quarterback, or you give up first downs, and those first downs quickly become touchdowns. Well, through the first three weeks of the season, the Atlanta defense has not pressured opposing QBs. The Falcons have a league-worst pressure rate of 22.5 percent, which bodes well for the Washington Football Team.

As is the case with every QB on Earth (and probably those on other planets), Washington's Taylor Heinicke is much better when he isn't under pressure. His interception rate drops from 8.7 percent when pressured to 1.2 percent when not, while his adjusted yards per attempt climbs from 6.83 to 8.84. Also, Washington's offense has been solid so far this season, while the Atlanta defense ranks 23rd in points allowed per drive (2.45) and 20th in defensive success rate (55 percent). I don't want to trust the Football Team to cover as road favorites, but I see them moving the ball and putting up points.

Prediction: Football Team 27, Falcons 23

Seahawks at 49ers: Seahawks +2.5 (+100)

Latest Odds: San Francisco 49ers -2.5

Were you surprised to see Green Bay come back late to rip San Francisco's heart out last week? You shouldn't have been because the 49ers were home favorites, and the 49ers have been awful as home favorites during the Kyle Shanahan era. Including the playoffs, San Francisco is 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite under Shanahan and 3-12-1 during the regular season. Hell, they don't even have to be at home, as they're only 10-19-1 ATS as favorites under Shanahan everywhere. I don't know why, but it's hard to argue with the results.

This week the 49ers are home favorites against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, and guess what? Do you know which QB has gone 27-14-2 ATS as an underdog in his career? That's right, it's Wilson. Of course, while those trends are hard to ignore, I'm also on the Seahawks here because they've been too good offensively to ignore. They just need to find consistency, and I think they'll find some against a San Francisco defense that hasn't done a whole lot to impress me yet.

Prediction: 49ers 28, Seahawks 27

Record

Units

Last Week

2-1

+0.9

Season

5-4

+0.55

Which picks can you make with confidence this week, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900.

2021 NFL jerseys now available

The new NFL season is here! Win or lose, you can shop jerseys, shirts, hats, and much more to support your favorite team. Shop here and show your colors.

We may receive a commission for purchases made through these links.