Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
If you watched any football last night, then you saw the Bengals save their season with a 19-16 win over the Rams, which was a good thing, because I might have had to take the rest of the year off if they had lost last night. As a noted Bengals homer, I can say that an 0-3 start would have broken my soul. Thankfully, my soul is still intact.
Another thing that's still intact is the Eagles' perfect record. Philadelphia improved to 3-0 with a 25-11 win over the Buccaneers, which was the first game in NFL history to end with a final score of 25-11 (SCORIGAMI). We'll be grading all four teams today, plus Prisco will be unveiling his latest Power Rankings.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It's the perfect gift to get for your favorite football-loving friend at the start of the season. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's Show: Early bets for Week 3
With Week 3 officially in the books, we decided to get an early jump on Week 4 today by revealing some of our best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action.
During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by SportsLine gambling gurus Emory Hunt and Alex "PropStarz" Selesnick.
The crew covered several of their favorite bets for Week 4 and we're going to look at one from each of them below with focus on the this week's Thursday game:
- Hunt: Lions at Packers OVER 45 points. Hunt's early lean in this game is to bet the over. "I feel like the over is in play here now that you have a confident Jordan Love and how he was able to bring his team back in Week 2. I feel like this one could get into shootout territory."
- Brinson: Falcons (+3) to cover against Jaguars. For the NFL's first London game of 2023, Brinson likes the Falcons, a team that he's 2-1 picking this year. "I'm going to keep riding the Falcons. There's no home-field advantage for the Jaguars. ... I think you're going to see Atlanta slow things down tremendously, so the under feels like it's also in play."
If you want to hear the rest of the props and early best bets for Week 4, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Monday night rewind: Grading all four teams that played
For the second straight week, the NFL gave us a Monday night doubleheader, and for the second straight week, we're going to hand out grades to every team that played.
Eagles 25-11 over Buccaneers (Click here for full game recap, analysis)
- Eagles takeaway: The Eagles coasted to a win Monday night, and a big reason for that is because Tampa Bay simply couldn't move the ball on Philadelphia's defense. It was as strong all-around performance from a unit that sacked Baker Mayfield twice while also forcing two turnovers. The most impressive part is that the Eagles were holding the Bucs to under 100 yards of offense until a garbage time drive in the fourth quarter put Tampa Bay over. On the other side of the ball, Jalen Hurts is still struggling a little with his accuracy -- he threw two interceptions -- but otherwise, the offense was nearly unstoppable and a big part of that was D'Andre Swift, who went over 130 yards for the second straight week. The Eagles aren't playing perfect football just yet, but they're 3-0 and that's all that matters. Grade: A-
- Buccaneers takeaway: Going into this game, the Buccaneers had one of the best run defenses in the NFL, but that's going to change after they got steamrolled for 201 yards by the Eagles. It wasn't just the Buccaneers defense that had issues, though; the Bucs offense couldn't move the ball. It was especially ugly in the first half where the Bucs totaled just 86 yards. On Tampa's six possessions in the first half: The Bucs punted three times, turned the ball over twice and got one field goal. If the Buccaneers learned one thing from this game, it's that they don't quite have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the best teams in the NFC. Grade: C-
Bengals 19-16 over Rams (Click here for full game recap, analysis)
- Rams takeaway: The Rams offense sputtered in this game and most of that had to do with the fact that the offensive line couldn't protect Matthew Stafford. The Rams QB got sacked six times on a night where he also threw two picks. The Rams were bad in the red zone, especially in the first half when they came away with zero touchdowns despite driving inside of Cincinnati's five-yard line twice. As bad as they were in the red zone, they were even worse on third down, converting just 1 of 11 and that one conversion didn't come until their final offensive play of the game. The Rams offense seems to be getting worse every week and if they don't get thing turned around soon, this could be a long season for L.A. Grade: C
- Bengals takeaway: Joe Burrow definitely wasn't 100% in this game, but that didn't seem to slow down the Bengals offense. Although he struggled with his accuracy at times, Burrow still managed to throw for 259 yards, and more importantly, he came out of the game mostly unscathed, thanks to an offensive line that kept him clean for most of the night. Burrow also got Ja'Marr Chase involved, which is something that hadn't really happened through the first two weeks. Although all eyes were on Burrow, it was actually the Bengals defense that won this game for Cincinnati. Logan Wilson came up with two clutch interceptions for a unit that also racked up six sacks. This win saved the Bengals season and as along as Burrow stays healthy, the sky is the limit for the Bengals in 2023. Grade: A-
If you want to see the grades from every Week 3 game, be sure to click here.
3. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 4
After three weeks, there are only three undefeated teams left in the NFL, but surprisingly, those aren't the top three teams in Prisco's Power Rankings. Despite scoring 70 POINTS against the Broncos, Prisco did NOT put the 3-0 Dolphins in his top three.
Here's a look at Prisco's top five teams heading into Week 3:
- 49ers (Same as last week)
- Eagles (Moved up one spot from last week)
- Chiefs (Moved up one spot from last week)
- Dolphins (Moved up two spots from last week)
- Bills (Moved up two spots from last week)
I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings:
- The biggest jump this week went to the Houston Texans. After watching them pull off a 37-17 upset of the Jaguars in Week 3, Prisco decided to reward them by moving them up TWELVE SPOTS. The Texans made the jump from 31st to 19th. The Colts also made an impressive jump, moving up 10 spots from 24th to 14th following their win over the Ravens.
- The NFC team that made the biggest move was the Detroit Lions, who jumped up eight spots following their 20-6 win over the Falcons. The Lions made the move from 18th to 10th, but they won't have much time to enjoy their new ranking because they play on Thursday night this week.
- The biggest tumble in this week's rankings went to the Jaguars. I'm guessing Pete wanted to make sure they were ranked behind the Texans, because that's exactly what happened here. Following their loss to Houston, the Jags fell 10 spots from 10th to 20th.
- Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. The Cardinals have been at the bottom all season, but after upsetting the Cowboys, they've moved out of the cellar. Going into Week 4, the title of worst team in the NFL now belongs to the Chicago Bears. This week, the Bears will be playing the Broncos, who are now ranked 30th after giving up 70 points to Miami. I'm guessing the loser of that game will be ranked last next week.
If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 4 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.
4. Breech's Week 4 picks: Bills beat Dolphins in shootout
It's Tuesday, which can only mean one thing around these parts: It's time for my weekly picks.
If this is your first season with us, here's how the formula works around here: I stay up until an insane hour every Monday night so that I can give you my picks every Tuesday morning. You'd think my picks would be horrible every week due to lack of sleep, but that hasn't been the case. I went 11-5 in Week 3 and I plan to do even better this week.
With that in mind, here are three of my picks for the Week 4, starting with the Thursday night game:
- Lions (2-1) at Packers (2-1): For some reason, Jared Goff turns into Joe Montana whenever he plays the Packers -- he's 4-2 against Green Bay in his career with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. I can't pick against Joe Montana. PICK: Lions (-1) 24-17 over Packers.
- Miami (3-0) at Buffalo (2-1): This game is giving us the unstoppable force (Miami's offense) against the immovable object (Buffalo's defense). The Dolphins have the NFL's highest-scoring offense and they'll be going up against a Bills defense that has surrendered the second-fewest points in the league through three weeks. The problem for Miami is that when Josh Allen plays the Dolphins, he is the unstoppable force AND the immovable object. I don't even know if that makes sense, but if there is one thing that does make sense, it's Allen beating the Bills. He's gone 9-1 against them in his past 10 games and I think his run continues here. PICK: Bills (-2.5) 34-31 over Dolphins.
- New England (1-2) at Dallas (2-1): The Cowboys offense has been struggling all season and Bill Belichick is the last guy you want to face when your offense is struggling. I mean, Belichick devised a defense that held the Dolphins to 24 points in Week 2, which now I think qualifies as one of the best game plans in NFL history considering the Dolphins put up 70 on Sunday. I think Belichick out-coaches Mike McCarthy and the Patriots pull off the upset. PICK: Patriots (+7) 23-20 over Cowboys
To check out the rest of my picks for Week 4, be sure to click here.
5. NFL Week 3: Overreaction or reality
Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and especially when it comes to the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL this week to decide if we're all overreacting.
Situation: The Dolphins should have tried to make history by scoring 73 points.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Dolphins had a chance to get to 73 in the final minute, having a fourth-and-14 with 33 seconds left at the Broncos' 27-yard line -- but declined to kick and instead took the kneel down. ... This was the first 70-point game since Washington scored 72 against the New York Giants in 1966. Good chance no team will ever score this many points again."
Situation: Sam Howell should be benched for Jacoby Brissett.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Howell was efficient in his first two games, but his passer rating took a massive hit as a result of his four-interception performance against the Bills. One bad performance shouldn't spark a quarterback debate in Washington, but it should be a cause for concern."
Situation: The Jets should fire Nathaniel Hackett.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Jets offense is embarrassing without Aaron Rodgers. In the two games Rodgers hasn't played, the Jets have averaged 10.0 points per game and averaged 193 yards per game. Zach Wilson has been abysmal, completing 47.6% of his passes for 327 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. ... A change at quarterback would help. A change at coordinator would be better."
There are plenty more overreactions from Week 3 and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.
6. Extra points: Travis Kelce is feeling the Taylor Swift effect
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- The Taylor Swift effect is real. After Swift showed up at the Chiefs game, Travis Kelce gained a lot of news fans. In the 24 hours after the game, Kelce gained roughly 300,000 new followers on social media, saw a 400 percent increase in merchandise sales and he now also has one of the five best- selling jerseys in the NFL. For a closer look at the Swift effect, be sure to click here.
- Jimmy Garoppolo in concussion protocol. The Raiders QB is currently in concussion protocol, which means there's a chance that he won't be able to play in Week 4 against the Chargers. If Garoppolo can't go, the Raiders will turn to Brian Hoyer, who is somehow still in the NFL.
- Broncos not going to fire anyone after giving up 70 points. Heads will not be rolling in Denver this week. There was a thought that the Broncos might fire some members of their coaching staff following their loss to Miami, but that won't be the case.
- Alvin Kamara returning from suspension. The Saints might not have Derek Carr in Week 4, but they will have Kamara, who is returning to the team this week after serving a three-game suspension. As for Carr, he's dealing with a shoulder injury and although the Saints are leaving the door open for him to play on Sunday against the Buccaneers, the more likely scenario is that Jameis Winston get the start against his old team.
- J.C. Jackson has a warrant out for his arrest. The Chargers' $82.5 million deal for J.C. Jackson is slowly starting to look like one of the worst free agency moves in NFL history. Jackson was inactive on Sunday and he now has an arrest warrant for not following the terms of his probation. You can read the full details here.
- Matt Ryan not interested in playing for the Jets. The former Falcons QB, who now works with us at CBS, has no plans on leaving the broadcast booth. Ryan told CBS Sports HQ on Monday that he has "no interest" in playing for the Jets.
