After Ohio State beat Michigan on Saturday, whether anybody in the room would ever admit it or not, the members of the College Football Playoff were probably rooting for Michigan State to beat Penn State. Not because they have anything against Penn State, but because it would make their lives a lot simpler moving forward.
But that didn't happen.
Ohio State won, Penn State won and Wisconsin won. When you put all those things together, that means Penn State and Wisconsin will be playing for a Big Ten title next week, while an 11-1 Ohio State that's currently ranked No. 2 in the country will sit at home.
So what does it mean for the Big Ten's CFP hopes? It's impossible to know, but here are some scenarios we're dealing with.
1. Ohio State could get left out of the playoff: This seems like an insane notion to many people because the Buckeyes are currently ranked No. 2 in the country, and they can't lose another game, but it's not impossible. Think about it. If Penn State wins the Big Ten Championship Game next week against Wisconsin, it will finish the season as the Big Ten champion with an 11-2 record -- with two wins over top-10 teams in Ohio State and Wisconsin.
Do you think the committee is going to leave a Big Ten champion -- the conference widely considered to be the best in the country this season -- with that resume out of the playoff? I don't. So now the question becomes whether Ohio State can still get in alongside Penn State, but if Washington wins the Pac-12, Alabama wins the SEC, and Clemson wins the ACC, which one is Ohio State going to replace?
Remember, while the CFP doesn't have any rules written in stone about what it looks for in a playoff team, the very first thing written in the CFP's guidelines for finding a champion is "establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships."
Ohio State fans should know how this works better than any other fan base. Remember, two years ago the committee ranked TCU No. 3 and Ohio State No. 5 heading into championship weekend. On that Saturday, TCU beat Kansas by 52 points while Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten title game. Suddenly Ohio State jumped over TCU because it was a Big Ten champion, while the Big 12 wouldn't recognize an individual conference champion between TCU or Baylor.
Just because you're at No. 2 now doesn't mean you'll stay there after conference titles are settled.
2. The Big Ten could still get two teams in: There's a chance this all worked out perfectly for the Big Ten. Had Michigan beaten Ohio State, odds are that the Big Ten wasn't getting more than one team in the playoff no matter what happened in Indianapolis next week. It would be either Michigan or Wisconsin representing the conference.
With the way things shook out, the conference can still get two teams in. As I alluded to earlier, if Washington, Alabama and Clemson all win out, then there's a chance Ohio State gets left out.
But if Washington or Clemson lose? Well, then Ohio State's in alongside the team that wins in Indianapolis next week. I don't see the committee choosing a two-loss Oklahoma team with a loss to Ohio State over the Buckeyes, even if it is the Big 12 champion.
3. Wisconsin has the worst chance of getting in: Here's the thing ... if Wisconsin beats Penn State next week, it will be the Big Ten champion, but the committee might not feel nearly as bad leaving it out and putting Ohio State in its place.
You see, it's harder to leave a Big Ten champion Penn State out in favor of Ohio State because Penn State beat Ohio State head-to-head. Wisconsin didn't. It lost to the Buckeyes in overtime, which would provide the committee with an easy explanation as to why it chose Ohio State over the Badgers.
