Bills Fantasy Football Preview: What does the next step look like for Josh Allen?

Josh Allen still isn't a great quarterback, but he's turned into a pretty good one for Fantasy. With the addition of Stefon Diggs and a full season of Devin Singletary, the hope is this offense can take another step forward in Allen's third season. Whether that happens might depend as much on Allen's ability to turn all that arm talent into actual passing ability, but the Bills are at least putting the right pieces around him.

2019 Review

Record: 10 - 6 (8)
PPG: 19.6 (23)
YPG: 330.2 (24)
Pass YPG: 201.8 (26)
Rush YPG: 128.4 (8)
PAPG: 32.1 (25)
RAPG: 29.1 (6)

2019 Fantasy finishes

QB: Josh Allen QB9
RB: Devin Singletary RB33, Frank Gore^ RB50
WR: Stefon Diggs* WR20, John Brown WR22
TE: Dawson Knox TE32
*With Minnesota
^No longer with team

Number to know: 34.9%

Allen has taken 34.9% of the Bills' total rush attempts inside the 10-yard line over the past two seasons, most in the NFL by a quarterback, and making him one of just two over 30%. That would be less of an issue for Singletary and Zack Moss if the Bills were producing an elite number of those premium opportunities, but the Bills rank 22nd in the NFL in rushes inside the 10-yard line over the past two seasons, so every one Allen takes is necessarily one Singletary or Moss can't. Making matters worse, if Singletary and Moss split work in 2020, it just spreads around the opportunities even further. That is all to say, unless the Bills change their strategy or start creating a lot more scoring opportunities, the ceiling for Singletary and Moss will remain limited.

2020 Offseason

Draft Picks

2. (54) A.J. Epenesa, DE
3. (86) Zack Moss, RB
4. (128) Gabriel Davis, WR
5. (167) Jake Fromm, QB
6. (188) Tyler Bass, K
6. (207) Isaiah Hodgins, WR
7. (239) Dane Jackson, CB

Additions

RB Jordan Howard, RB Matt Breida; OL Ereck Flowers, OL Ted Karras; DB Byron Jones; LB Kyle Van Noy; DL Emmanuel Ogbah, DL Shaq Lawson

Key Departures

QB Josh Rosen; DB Reshad Jones,

Available Opportunity

100 carries, 54 RB targets, 0 WR targets, 13 TE targets

Rankings and Projections

Player	Jamey Eisenberg	Dave Richard	Heath Cummings
Josh Allen	QB7	QB9	QB8
Devin Singletary	RB30	RB27	RB25
Zack Moss	RB34	RB31	RB57
Stefon Diggs	WR27	WR25	WR22
Dawson Knox	TE29	TE32	TE30
Stephen Hauschka/Tyler Bass*	K20	K19	K20
Bills DST	DST6	DST8	DST8

	Heath Cummings' projections
QB	Josh Allen	3,793 YD, 25 TD, 14 INT; 539 Rush YD, 6 TD
RB	Devin Singletary	1,025 YD, 4 TD; 36 REC, 249 YD, 1 TD
RB	Zack Moss	441 YD, 3 TD; 8 REC, 55 YD, 0 TD
WR	Stefon Diggs	121 TAR, 79 REC, 969 YD, 7 TD
WR	John Brown	111 TAR, 63 REC, 933 YD, 6 TD
WR	Cole Beasley	79 TAR, 52 REC, 574 YD, 4 TD
TE	Dawson Knox	53 TAR, 32 REC, 411 YD, 3 TD

Biggest Question

Will Josh Allen continue stealing Fantasy production from Buffalo skill position players?

"Allen's scrambling ability has limited his pass attempt ceiling, and in each of his first two seasons he's accounted for more than a quarter of the Bills offensive touchdowns on his rushing scores alone. With the additions of Stefon Diggs at receiver and Zack Moss in the backfield, there is more competition for touches in 2020, and whether Allen develops more traditional passing productivity will go a long way toward determining whether this is a one-man Fantasy show. " -- Ben Gretch

One sleeper, one breakout and one bust

Sleeper

John Brown WR

BUF Buffalo • #89
Age: 34 • Experience: 8 yrs.

2019 Stats
REC 72	TAR 115	REYDS 1060	TD 7	FPTS/G 14.7

I don't see any way both Brown and Diggs are Fantasy viable this season; it would just be asking too much from Josh Allen as a passer. However, Brown showed what he could do when healthy as a No. 1 option last season, ranking 22nd in PPR scoring, which makes him a perfect insurance option for Diggs. I'm not saying you should draft Brown as a handcuff to Diggs, but if anything were to happen to him, Brown would be right back in that role that was so valuable for him a year ago.

Breakout

Stefon Diggs WR

HOU Houston • #14
Age: 30 • Experience: 10 yrs.

2019 Stats
REC 63	TAR 94	REYDS 1130	TD 6	FPTS/G 14.1

It will be hard for Diggs to be a better receiver than he was in 2019, when he was historically efficient as the Vikings deep threat. However, he should get more opportunities as the No. 1 for the Bills -- John Brown had 19 more targets and finished within five points of Diggs last season in that role. Diggs is better than Brown, so he should be able to do more with that role, and the Bills should be inclined to lean on him more heavily as a result. If Allen improves as a passer, there is top-10 potential here because the QB's big arm could make Diggs a threat to score on every drop back.

Bust

Josh Allen QB

BUF Buffalo • #17
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.

2019 Stats
PAYDS 3089	RUYDS 510	TD 29	INT 9	FPTS/G 20.5

I just can't shake this feeling that this is going to be a disastrous season for Allen. It might just be my brain looking for patterns where there are none, but doesn't this feel a lot like Blake Bortles in 2018 and Mitch Trubisky in 2019? Young, up-and-down quarterback has a surprisingly good season with elite defense, expectations rise and the whole thing comes apart as the QB regresses. To the Bills credit, their acquisition of Diggs is a sign that, unlike the Jaguars and Bears before them, they couldn't just stand pat. Still, it's hard to get past a simple fact: Allen is arguably the worst passer in the NFL. Diggs will help, but the only reason Allen is being ranked as high as he is is because of his rushing ability, especially near the red zone. If the Bills opt to protect him more, the onus falls on him taking a leap as a passer, and that's not something I'm willing to bet on at a top-eight QB price.