Watch Now: Bad Fantasy Schedule: Texans (1:10)

Gone is DeAndre Hopkins, in are Brandin Cooks and David Johnson, which would be great if this were 2018. The duo could help Deshaun Watson replace Hopkins if they stay healthy, but that seems like asking a lot from both at this point in their careers. At least Will Fuller never gets hurt, right?  

2019 Review

Record: 10-6 (8th in NFL)
PPG: 23.6 (14) 
YPG: 362.0 (13)
Pass YPG: 236.4 (15) 
Rush YPG: 125.6 (9) 
PAPG: 33.4 (20)
RAPG: 27.1 (12)

2019 Fantasy finishes

QB: Deshaun Watson QB4 
RB: Duke Johnson RB29; Carlos Hyde* RB30
WR: DeAndre Hopkins* WR5; Will Fuller WR52; Kenny Stills WR60
TE: Darren Fells TE17; Jordan Akins TE25   
* No longer on the team

Number to know: 10.7 

Johnson has averaged 10.7 yards per catch over his career, including a 10.5 receiving average in his first six games of 2019 before getting sidelined. Even when he came back and looked sluggish, he still impressed with a 9.2 receiving average. The guy can catch. 

Will the Texans deploy him accordingly? Since Deshaun Watson became the quarterback, Texans running backs have averaged 54 receptions per season. That's it. And don't forget, receiving specialist Duke Johnson (44 catches last year) is still on the roster. 

Johnson averaged 3.9 yards per run last year before his injury and 3.6 yards per carry in 2018. He needs a good receiving workload to produce quality Fantasy totals.

2020 Offseason

Draft Picks 

2. (40) Ross Blacklock, DT
3. (90) Jonathan Greenard, DE
4. (126) Charlie Heck, OT
4. (141) John Reid, CB
5. (171) Isaiah Coulter, WR    

Additions

RB David Johnson; WR Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb; DB Eric Murray and Michael Thomas

Key Departures

WR DeAndre Hopkins; RB Carlos Hyde; DT D.J. Reader; CB Johnathan Joseph

Available Opportunity 

254 carries, 17 RB targets, 150 WR targets, 0 TE targets   

Rankings and Projections

Player
Deshaun Watson QB3 QB6 QB5
David Johnson RB21 RB20 RB22
Duke Johnson RB58 RB56 RB52
Brandin Cooks WR33 WR33 WR34
Will Fuller WR38 WR42 WR44
Darren Fells N/A TE27 N/A
Jordan Akins N/A TE31 N/A
Texans DST DST19 DST13 DST27

Heath Cummings' projections
QB Deshaun Watson 4,077 YD, 25 TD, 13 INT; 496 Rush YD, 5 TD
RB David Johnson 934 YD, 8 TD; 26 REC, 231 YD, 2 TD
RB Duke Johnson 403 YD, 2 TD; 24 REC, 219 YD, 2 TD
WR Brandin Cooks 105 TAR, 65 REC, 869 YD, 6 TD
WR Will Fuller 94 TAR, 62 REC, 820 YD, 6 TD
WR Randall Cobb 73 TAR, 49 REC, 593 YD, 3 TD
TE Jordan Akins 47 TAR, 31 REC, 376 YD, 1 TD

Biggest Question

What will Houston's offense look like?  

"Houston lost their high-volume No. 1 receiver and replaced him with more speed on the outside in Brandin Cooks and a slot receiver in Randall Cobb. They also added another versatile, pass-catching back in David Johnson, and they bring back more tight ends than there are spots for. This offense is long on overlapping skill sets and role-players, and short on answers about which roles they will play." - Ben Gretch 

One sleeper, one bounce-back and one bust

Sleeper
HOU Houston • #18
Age: 29 • Experience: 10 yrs.
2019 Stats
REC
55
TAR
83
REYDS
828
TD
3
FPTS/G
10.3

In several ways, Cobb is the opposite of Cooks and Fuller. He's an established slot guy; Cooks and Fuller line up on the outside way more often. He's missed 12 games over the past six seasons; Fuller's missed 22 games in four seasons and Cooks' risk of missing games is elevated given his concussion history. Cobb runs routes close to the line of scrimmage (10.4 average depth of target last year) but has a high catch rate (66.3% last year); Cooks and Fuller averaged right around 14 yards of depth per target in 2019 and only Fuller had a considerable catch rate thanks to a high dose of screens and quick slants. However, Cobb has finished in the top 10 in yards after contact per attempt each of the past three seasons (over 6.0 yards per) while Cooks and Fuller have struggled. That comes with the territory when playing in the slot but it sure doesn't hurt. Moreover, Cobb figures to have an iron-clad grip on those slot targets compared to Cooks and Fuller fighting for outside targets. Watson threw to slot receivers 125 times in 2019 and 103 times in 2018. At worst, Cobb is worthy of a bench stash in deeper PPR formats. 

Bounce-back
HOU Houston • #13
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
2019 Stats
REC
42
TAR
72
REYDS
583
TD
2
FPTS/G
8.4

No doubt, there's a lot to be worried about after Cooks had two concussions that limited his playing time and ultimately sent his stats to career lows in 2019. But how quickly we forget about Cooks' four straight seasons with at least 65 catches, 1,082 yards and five touchdowns per, simple evidence of his great receiving abilities. And now he finds himself in a Texans offense that has 150 targets to make up with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. Cooks has never been a consistent Fantasy receiver, but he has been a boom-or-bust hero with four straight top-15 PPR finishes until last year. There's pretty good upside if you're finding Cooks after Round 5. 

Bust
HOU Houston • #15
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
2019 Stats
REC
49
TAR
71
REYDS
670
TD
3
FPTS/G
12.2

The argument for Fuller is easy: All he has to do is stay healthy and not drop passes. The counter-argument? Fuller has struggled to stay healthy his entire career (he's coming off of core muscle surgery this offseason!) and he dropped 6 of 55 catchable passes last year (and 15 of 171 catchable targets over his career). He's also been routinely unreliable in Fantasy, posting 15 or more PPR points no more than three times per season (26% of his career games) and 10 or more non-PPR points no more than four times per season (31% of his career games). Even Cooks is more reliable! At best, Fuller is a boom-bust weekly flex play. At worst, he's a waste of a top-80 pick. 

Fantasy Previews 
AFC East: Bills | Jets | Patriots | Dolphins 
NFC East: Giants | Cowboys | Eagles | Redskins 
AFC South: Colts | Texans | Jaguars | Titans 
NFC South: Panthers | Bucs |  Falcons | Saints 
AFC North: Ravens | Steelers | Browns | Bengals 
NFC North: Packers | Vikings | Bears | Lions 
AFC West: Chiefs | Broncos | Raiders | Chargers 
NFC West: Seahawks | 49ers | Rams | Cardinals  

So which Fantasy football busts should you completely avoid? And which running back going off the board early should you fade? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that called Baker Mayfield's disappointing season, and find out.