This coming Sunday the Patriots will visit the Chiefs as Kansas City hosts the city's first ever AFC Championship Game. K.C. got here thanks to likely MVP winner Patrick Mahomes exploding in his second season, becoming the second player ever to throw for 50 touchdowns and 5,000 passing yards, and leading the Chiefs to 12 wins and the AFC West title. 

Just like all AFC Championship Games, this one will be broadcast on CBS (you can stream it on CBS All Access) and it could be a doozy, with the two teams squaring off in the regular season in a game that combined for 83 points and ended up being one of the most exciting games of the entire 2018 regular season.

What makes the previous performance interesting is the total in this game, which opened below 60 and is now actually dropping, having fallen 1.5 points in the last 24 hours. 

Below I'm going to try and pepper you with some trends and facts and things of interest as it relates to the total and the point spread for this matchup. Dive in, holler my way with anything you see on Twitter @WillBrinson and make sure to listen to the Pick Six Podcast -- our daily NFL pod! -- for all of our picks throughout the week. The latest episode is below with Ryan Wilson breaking down Kyler Murray's draft decision.

Chiefs (-3) vs. Patriots

The three biggest takeaways from this spread, which hasn't moved but is juiced (-115) towards the Patriots (meaning you have to bet $115 to win $100): the Patriots are an underdog, Brady is on the road and Patrick Mahomes/Arrowhead are relative unknowns. 

This is just the second time that Andy Reid has ever been favored in a game against Bill Belichick, the first coming waaaay back in 2005, when Reid was with the Eagles. Philly, a 4.5-point fave, got blown out by New England 31-10. 

Reid and Belichick will be squaring off in the playoffs for just the third time on Sunday, with Belichick winning the first two, including defeating the Eagles during Reid's only Super Bowl appearance during the 2004 season. The Pats were seven-point favorites but didn't cover: a late Eagles touchdown kept the game close (24-21) and still allowed the under to hit. 

Who wins Patriots vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.

More recently, we have a string of success from Reid, who has gone 2-2 straight up against Belichick since he arrived in Kansas City. Reid is 3-1 ATS in those games, with the only failure to cover coming in a playoff game in New England where the Patriots, as 4.5-point favorites, beat the Chiefs 27-20. All four of the matchups between the Chiefs and Patriots since 2013 have gone over the total, including this year's regular season matchup that had a total set at 57.5. 

The Patriots as an underdog in the playoffs is a rare thing, as this is just the seventh time it's happened since Belichick and Brady landed in New England. Two of those instances were in their inaugural Super Bowl run, when they were double-digit dogs. The Patriots have been underdogs in the playoffs ONCE since the 2006 season, which is just wild to consider. That's when they played the Broncos stout defense in the AFC Championship Game in Denver, closing as a five-point underdog. They would lose that game 26-16.

Overall as an underdog, New England is 3-3 straight up and against the spread, although the Pats are just 1-3 straight up and against the spread in their last four playoff games as a dog. 

Also rare about his game: Tom Brady is playing on the road in the playoffs. He never does that. To put it in perspective, Brady is starting his eighth straight AFC Championship Game while also starting his eighth road playoff game ever. That's hard to fathom when you really think about it.

Brady covered and won his first two road playoff games, both at Pittsburgh (January 2002 and January 2005), lost in Denver in January 2006, won in San Diego in January 2007, lost in Indy in January 2007 and lost the last two road games in Denver (2013, 2015). Remember that the Patriots usually HOST the AFC Championship Game -- they're just not familiar with traveling away from Foxborough for these games. The Patriots are just 1-4 straight up in their last five road playoff games and 1-4 against the spread in those games as well. 

If you still haven't marked your calendar for the Super Bowl, the game will be kicking off from Atlanta on Feb. 3 and will be televised by CBS and you can stream it right here. If you're thinking about buying a new TV for the big game, CNET has you covered. They shared their best picks for every budget.

That's a fairly disappointing record for anything Brady/Pats related, but when you see Andy Reid's playoff record in Kansas City, well, it puts things into perspective. Reid is now just 2-4 straight up in the playoffs since 2013 and 2-4 against the spread. There are some heartbreakers on there too: the brutal comeback in Indy after the 2013 season, the seven-point loss/clock problem game against New England, losing 19-16 to Pittsburgh at home in the divisional round after the 2016 season, the comeback from Tennessee last year ... it's been rough for Reid. Basically if he wins he covers. If he loses, he does not. 

And the under has been surprisingly effective in these matchups for Reid, who is 2-4 to the over in his playoff games. Interestingly, the over has only hit in one of Brady's road games too. Which brings us to... 

Chiefs-Patriots Over/Under 55.5

When this total opened, it was at 57, mirroring the number for the Saints and Rams game, which will be played in New Orleans. One big difference between those games: the Chiefs play at Arrowhead Stadium, which is outdoors. 

And there is currently an "arctic blast" headed towards Kansas City. That news causes the line to drop faster than the temperature, with the number moving off 57 all the way down to 55.5 in the matter of a few hours.

So does this line represent some value right now? In the post-merger era, there have only been 12 conference championship games with an over/under of 50 or more, not counting the two this year. Unsurprisingly, seven of those have come in the last 10 years, with offenses exploding. Five of those seven have featured the New England Patriots, which would be sort of stunning, except the Pats have been involved in eight straight AFC Championship Games. 

Five of the 12 games took place in a dome. Four of the seven that didn't take place in a dome were played in New England and two more were played in Denver, at altitude. 

Whether or not the games have actually hit has been just about in the middle, going 6-5-1 to the over in that span. 

If we isolate the games that had an over/under of 55, there are just three of them, with those games going 2-1 to the over. The two overs were indoors, while the under that hit was Peyton Manning in his record-breaking 2013 season against Tom Brady, with Denver winning a 26-16 affair despite playing in really nice weather. 

I was curious about the weather here too, so I looked at the history of games played in less than 30 degrees with over/unders above 50 since 2010. There are just 12 such games, including three from this year. One of those games was the Bears-Rams game, which somehow had an over/under of 51. The Bears won with 15 points. The over/under has been even in these games, going 6-6 in that stretch. 

There's only one championship weekend game -- the AFC Championship Game after the 2011 season between the Ravens and Patriots in New England -- and it went under with a final score of 23-20. It's pretty wild to imagine someone actively chose to put an over above 50 in a game involving Joe Flacco.

Specifically to these teams, the over has not been kind in Patriots games. New England is just 6-11 this season on the over/under despite going WAY over the total against the Chargers last week in a beatdown of Los Angeles. New England's gone over the total just 35.3 percent of the time in 2018. 

Here's a pretty shocking stat for Bill Belichick and the Pats: in their 12 conference championship game appearances, the over is 4-7-1. Three of those overs came during the 2006 season or before. Since 2007 -- when Brady and the Pats offense lit up the NFL -- New England is 1-6-1 on overs in conference championship games. 

Conversely, the Chiefs were one of the best teams against the over this season, going 10-6-1 (62.5 percent) to the over, trailing only the Jets (!). The Chiefs would be in first had their matchup against the Colts last week not fallen woefully short. Since Andy Reid arrived in Kansas City, he's coached six playoff games. The under is 2-4 in those games. 

In the same time frame -- since 2013 -- Reid has coached in 19 games where the over/under is above 50. The over is 9-9-1 in those games. In games where the total is over 55, the over has hit in two out of three games, including the shootout against the Rams earlier this season that