We're almost at the halfway point of the NFL season and the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders, except for in the NFC East. The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys are battling for first place in the division, but both teams sit at just 3-3. Philadelphia and Dallas have had their share of injuries and issues, but this game is still amongst the best in the NFL this weekend. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson added a little spice to the rivalry with his proclamation the Eagles were going to beat the Cowboys.
While first place in the NFC East will be determined, so will first place in the AFC South, and as the Houston Texans play the Indianapolis Colts. Other notable Week 7 game include the Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears.
Let's get to those Week 7 picks!
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network)
Line: Chiefs -3.5
What is going on with the Chiefs? Back-to-back losses to AFC South opponents in which the offense has looked mortal, averaging just 18.5 points and 316.5 yards per game. The Chiefs, who scored 25-plus points in 25 consecutive games, failed to reach 25 in the last two. Patrick Mahomes has even looked mortal the past three weeks, completing just 56 percent of his passes. The Broncos won't be an easy cure for the Chiefs' offensive woes, either, as Denver has allowed just 6.5 points and 225 yards per game over the last two weeks, both wins. But the Chiefs' offense is a little better than the Chargers and Titans, and the Broncos don't have the offense to keep up, not eclipsing over 24 points all year. Twenty is the magic number for Kansas City, which it should reach.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 16
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Miami Dolphins (0-5) at Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Bills -17
Normally Bills vs. Dolphins is just a game NFL fans don't pay attention to because both teams are cellar dwellers in the AFC East. In case you weren't aware, the Bills are good. The defense is a top-five unit, allowing just 14 points and 275 yards per game. They get to feast on a Dolphins offense that averages 8.4 points and 234.2 yards, off a bye week no less. Josh Rosen was benched as Miami's starting quarterback, as the Dolphins will go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Buffalo may have just 12 sacks and 26 quarterback hits, but it's going to give Fitzpatrick fits. The Dolphins allow 4.6 sacks per game, so those numbers will go up with Fitzpatrick's immobility. This game could get ugly in a hurry.
Pick: Bills 27, Dolphins 7
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Jaguars -3.5
The Jaguars are going off two straight losses, but this team is in every game. Jacksonville's last two losses were by a touchdown in each affair. The offense went stagnant last week, scoring just six points against a very underrated Saints defense. Gardner Minshew had his worst game since taking over the starting job, completing less than 50 percent of his passes and throwing his first interception since Week 1. Minshew shouldn't have a problem against a Bengals defense that allows 26.5 points and 426 yards a game. For the Jaguars to win this game, they have to let Leonard Fournette control the offense ... especially against a Bengals defense that allows 184.5 yards per game. Fournette has 584 yards and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry with one touchdown. That touchdown number is going up against the Bengals.
Pick: Jaguars 28, Bengals 13
Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at Detroit Lions (2-2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Pick
The Lions let another fourth quarter lead slip away (controversial penalties or not) in a last-second loss to the Packers, the second fourth quarter lead Detroit blew this year. Detroit should be sitting atop of the NFC North with a 4-1 record, not in last place. Now the Lions have to play a Vikings team that is scorching hot on offense, averaging 33 points and 468.5 yards per game over the past two weeks. Kirk Cousins had six touchdowns and one interception in that stretch, completing 78.6 percent of his passes. The Lions are a .500 team, so Cousins shouldn't have a problem beating them. Detroit allows a whopping 413.8 yards per game. The Lions play hard every game, but Minnesota's offense will be tough to stop. The Vikings also have a top-five defense as extra ammunition. Good luck.
Pick: Vikings 30, Lions 20
Oakland Raiders (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Packers -6.5
This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend, given the Packers are one of the best teams in the NFC and the Raiders are a half game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. The Raiders don't exactly wow you on the stat sheet, but they have two impressive wins against the Colts and Bears. Oakland can run the ball, averaging 134.4 yards per game (eighth in the NFL) and Derek Carr (yes Derek Carr) leads the NFL in completion percentage at 73.3 percent. The Raiders are going to have to give the ball to Josh Jacobs to control a Packers defense that allows 124.5 rush yards a game. Jacobs and the Raiders are coming off a bye, and he's fresh off a 123-yard, two touchdown performance against the Bears. Expect the Raiders to control the ball and make the Packers one-dimensional throwing the football. I'm going out on a limb and picking the Raiders in an upset, all because they can control the clock and are excellent on third down.
Pick: Raiders 24, Packers 21
Los Angeles Rams (3-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Rams -3
The Rams are on a three-game losing streak, a first under head coach Sean McVay. Los Angeles has serious problems as Todd Gurley can't stay healthy (knee, quad), which exposed Jared Goff in a loss to the 49ers last week. Goff went 13 of 24 for 78 yards as the Rams had just 157 yards of offense. Los Angeles has a banged up offensive line, which forces Goff to move outside the pocket, where he's demonstrated he's not as effective and becomes prone to incompletions. The Falcons couldn't have come at a better time for the Rams, as Atlanta allows 31 points and 388.8 yards per game. The Rams like to establish the run, but the Falcons' secondary can't cover a lick as they allow 271.2 yards and 2.5 pass touchdowns per game. The Rams throw the ball early to cruise past Atlanta.
Pick: Rams 34, Falcons 23
The Rams traded for Jalen Ramsey, and there's a lot to go over. Fortunately, Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough break it all down on the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and subscribe here for daily NFL goodness.
Houston Texans (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Colts -1
Another exciting matchup in Week 7 as the Texans and Colts are battling for first place in the AFC South, both teams coming off wins over the Chiefs. The Texans offense is pretty good, ranking eighth in points (27.0) and sixth in yards (397.6), thanks to Deshaun Watson completing 69.7 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions for a 107.9 rating. How can the Colts slow down the Texans offense, given their defense averages 6.1 yards per play? Watson has been sacked 18 times this year and the Colts have 13 sacks and 26 quarterback hits in five games. Houston can win this game by controlling the clock (10th in NFL in time of possession) and running the ball (5.0 yards per carry and eight touchdowns). This is a toss up, but Houston has the edge because of the impact Watson makes.
Pick: Texans 26, Colts 24
San Francisco 49ers (5-0) at Washington Redskins (1-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: 49ers -10
The 49ers aren't just good, but they may be the best team in the NFC. San Francisco's offense is ranked third in points and fourth in yards, while the defense ranks second in points and yards allowed. The 49ers showed why they are undefeated with their beatdown of the Rams, allowing just seven points and holding them to 157 yards. San Francisco doesn't have to do much to get to 6-0, just run the ball against the Redskins defense that allows 134 yards a game (the 49ers average 179.8 rush yards and lead the league in rush attempts). The 49ers can pound the ball at will against the Redskins front and wear the defense down early. The Redskins will try to do that too to stay in the game, but the 49ers have a much better run defense than the Dolphins.
Pick: 49ers 34, Redskins 17
Arizona Cardinals (2-3-1) at New York Giants (2-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Giants -2.5
The Giants have 10 days to recover from a brutal loss to the Patriots. Not that the Giants played poorly, but they were without their top two running backs, wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. No one should have been surprised Daniel Jones had three interceptions against the top defense in the NFL. The Giants will have an easier task this week against a Cardinals defense that allows 28.5 points and 414 yards, especially if Saquon Barkley comes back from a high ankle sprain. New York could also get Engram back for this one. The Cardinals are no pushover as Kliff Kingsbury has transformed their offense from the bottom in the league to 17th in points and ninth in yards, while facing a Giants defense that has allowed over 400 yards per game. Look for the Cardinals to throw the ball left and right against the Giants' 31st-ranked pass defense, as Murray could throw 45-plus times. The Giants will run it with Barkley if he plays. No Barkley, Giants lose.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Giants 27
Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Titans -1.5
The Titans can't decide on their quarterback while the Chargers are the biggest underachievers of the year. So which team is going to win this slugfest? Tennessee benched Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill in a shutout loss to Denver (Tannehill will start this week), just one of many problems the offense has had. Things can't get any worse for the Chargers, who are 0-2 since the return of Melvin Gordon and lost to a third string rookie quarterback last week. The Chargers turn the ball over way too much, which is bad against a Tennessee defense that has 11 takeaways in six games. For the Chargers to win, the takeaways must be limited and they have to establish the run with Gordon and Austin Ekeler. If the game is off Philip Rivers' shoulders, they'll pull off the upset.
Pick: Chargers 23, Titans 19
New Orleans Saints (5-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Bears -3
The Saints are 4-0 with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, but their defense has been the most impressive unit during this run. New Orleans has allowed just 16.8 points in Bridgewater's four starts while compiling five takeaways and allowing 257 yards or less the last three games. While Bridgewater has been impressive (69.4%, 7 TD, 2 INT), can he play well against a Bears defense that allows 13.8 points, 312.2 yards, and two takeaways a game? The Bears rush defense is still dominant, despite the abnormal game facing Josh Jacobs, and opposing quarterbacks have nightmares facing their front seven. New Orleans will miss Drew Brees Sunday as the Bears win a defensive slugfest, no matter who starts for Chicago at quarterback.
Pick: Bears 17, Saints 14
Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Seahawks -3.5
Another intriguing game on the Week 7 calendar, as the Ravens have recommitted to the run with Lamar Jackson. Jackson has 33 carries for 222 yards and a touchdown over the last two games. Running the ball has helped Baltimore's defense, as the Ravens have given up 20 points a game against back-to-back AFC South opponents. Seattle's defense will be a little different than Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, as it allows just 92.8 yards a game. The Seahawks' game plan is to stop the run and force Jackson to beat them with his arm, and they are facing a Ravens defense that allows 6.3 yards per play and is susceptible to the big play. Not good against a team that averages 8.5 yards per pass. Baltimore has a lot going against it this week trying to stop Russell Wilson.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Ravens 23
Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Line: Cowboys -3
First place in the NFC East is on the line as the Eagles and Cowboys renew their rivalry and both teams are coming off their worst losses of the year. The Cowboys offense has been a disaster since their 3-0 start, averaging just 18.7 points per game and trailing by double digits in the second half in each of the last two contests. The Eagles secondary has been their downfall, allowing 280.2 pass yards per game and 7.4 yards per pass. If the Cowboys don't have Amari Cooper, that takes away the one player that can take over the game. The Eagles are second in the league in run defense and Ezekiel Elliott is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry over the past three games. If the Eagles take away Elliott, Dallas becomes one-dimensional, which is when Dak Prescott struggles. Michael Gallup is good, but he's not someone who can torch a secondary without Cooper lined up opposite of him. The Eagles can score enough points with their inconsistent offense, but they have to get off to a fast start. They will if they open up the passing game early. The Eagles win this one if Dallas doesn't have Cooper, especially if DeSean Jackson makes a return.
Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 21
New England Patriots (6-0) at New York Jets (1-4)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Line: Patriots -9.5
The Jets are a different team with Sam Darnold in the fold. Darnold threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns, as the Jets had a vertical passing game and Le'Von Bell had his highest yards per carry average since Week 1. That should put some intrigue into this game with the Patriots, who faced the Jets in Week 3 with Luke Falk at quarterback. The Patriots still shouldn't have a problem beating the Jets, given that they are on 11 days rest and have the NFL's best defense. The Jets weren't any better on third down with Darnold Sunday (2 of 10), just below the season average (20.90%, last in NFL). New York has proven it can't convert on third down, so why would that change against New England? This will be a better game than the first meeting, but Patriots will go to 7-0.
Pick: Patriots 31, Jets 17
Bye Week: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers
KERR'S RECORD (Week 6): 9-5
KERR'S RECORD (Overall): 56-35-1 (.609 win percentage)
