In a normal season, defenses start to catch up with offenses by now. I wrote about that last week. This hasn't been a normal season, not even a little bit. Last week, nine games totaled over 50 points and five totaled at least 58 points. Expect about the same thing in half of the games this week, with a couple of defenses (Houston, Arizona, Chicago to name three) potentially turning the corner.
More Week 5 Fantasy Prep: Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | QB Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | RB Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | WR Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | Waiver Wire | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Trade Values | Cut List
All lines from William Hill Sportsbook.
The line wants us to believe: Washington will compete. It's a team that's lost three straight games by 14 or more points. A change to Kyle Allen at quarterback is going to change things? The Rams offense isn't as bad as it looked last week, and Jared Goff should prove that pretty convincingly.
The matchup is too good not to give Goff another shot, even if last week's effort was pretty weird. Washington's defensive front isn't the same without beast rookie Chase Young — three sacks in its past two games. That's good, because a comfortable Goff is a dangerous Goff. Washington has also given up multiple touchdowns to every quarterback they've seen, a good omen for Goff, who lamented a lack of execution of the offense in Week 4. Look for the Rams to get right, perhaps with a little more of Tyler Higbee against the Washington linebackers in the red zone. Goff has completed at least 71% of his throws in each of his past three.
| ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||
With a range between 49-61% of the snaps, Brown has regularly been on the field the most out of every Rams running back each week. That's the only constant; Brown had the highest percentage of touches in two games, and Henderson had the highest percentage in two. All bets are off as to who plays what role when Cam Akers returns. It's a shame because Washington's run defense has yielded four total touchdowns to the position in its past two games. My heart wants to start Henderson, but logic says Brown's playing time and touches makes him the safest if you must start a Rams runner. Both would be flexes if Akers is out.
| ||||||||||||||||||
It's happening. Washington is willing to take the bad with the good in Gibson's game, giving him at least 12 touches per game since Week 2. It's likely because he's fast as heck and has the receiving skills to cause all kinds of problems. Using him specifically on the edges of the field puts him in tremendous position to rack up numbers, as does his red-zone work (he's scored in three straight). The Rams have allowed 12-plus non-PPR points to running backs in every matchup except Week 4 against the lowly Giants. Kyle Allen replacing Dwayne Haskins should be viewed as an upgrade — he was masterful in feeding the ball to Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last season. Gibson still has work to do, including earning more playing time, but he should still be an effective part of the offense.
| ||||||||||||||||||
We're going through every matchup on the schedule for Week 5 on the Fantasy Football Today podcast. Subscribe at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts:
The line wants us to believe: The Eagles have enough spunk to hang relatively close. I actually think it's a fair line but the public is all over Pittsburgh. They're rested while the Eagles are on the road for a second straight week. It might take a defensive touchdown for the Steelers to cover more than a touchdown.
Want some discouraging news? Of course not, but here it is anyway: The 49ers almost never tilted coverage toward Ertz last week, leaving him in man coverage, which he couldn't shake. Philadelphia's offensive line is forcing Carson Wentz to throw early or get on the move as defensive pressure is on him constantly. So even if he did pepper Ertz with targets, he probably wouldn't have had many explosive plays. The Steelers, who typically cover tight ends well to begin with, have 66 defensive pressures in just three games — they're going to bring a ton of heat on Wentz. Figure it leads to another lean week for Ertz, who has just one game in four with over 10 PPR points. Ertz isn't even the most desirable tight end to start in this game.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Philadelphia has been absolutely wrecked by tight ends this season — Logan Thomas and George Kittle each scored, Tyler Higbee hit pay dirt three times back in Week 2, and on the year tight ends are catching 86% of their targets against them. A well-rested Steelers offense is unlikely to ignore that. Ebron has 12 targets in his past two games. Stream him.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: That the stink of the Jets overwhelms the stink of the Cardinals' last two games. Truth is, no one wants to willingly put actual currency on the Jets. But can the Cardinals beat them by eight-plus on the road after consecutive disappointments against the Lions and Panthers? This would be the right week for Arizona to get aggressive with their offense.
I have some concerns after reviewing Drake's play. Last week especially, Drake couldn't win rushing to the outside edges. And on inside runs (between the tackles), his offensive line did him no favors. Credit the Panthers for having a rapidly improving defense, but that's just part of the story. Murray isn't attacking downfield (he's ranked 20th in deep-ball pass rate) and is rushing quite a bit (he's got five red-zone carries and four touchdowns from 22 yards or closer). Drake is in a rough spot compounded further by Chase Edmonds clearly running faster and doing more in the passing game. We saw this coaching staff turn on a running back pretty quickly last year — how long until they commit to Edmonds?
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: Another Chiefs blowout is upon us. Three of their four wins have come by at least two touchdowns, so it's pretty easy to believe. Las Vegas' injuries should help pave the way, though their offense has played better than expected. At the very least they should get close to their 21.75 implied point total.
Renfrow has at least eight targets in each of his past two games. Granted, only 4 of his past 17 throws from Derek Carr were considered deep, but he still has the desirable volume to be Fantasy-relevant. Kansas City's defense had nothing to do with Julian Edelman's horrid mistakes and low totals — it's still a defensive unit that's (willingly) susceptible to the little plays Renfrow typically makes. Expect Renfrow to see a lot of work as the Raiders are forced to throw to keep up with the Chiefs.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Texans can beat anybody by a touchdown. The reality is that Bill O'Brien's firing figures to fire up the Texans on both sides of the ball. An injury-riddled Jaguars team isn't in position to compete. I do think both teams fall short of their implied point totals (24 for the Jags, 30 for the Texans). I also think Deshaun Watson runs the offense his way, which should be great.
Stream Them: Texans DST
When interim coaches take over, there's usually a honeymoon period where the whole team plays noticeably better. It's especially the case for defenses when the interim coach comes from that side of the ball. The timing couldn't be better for the Texans as the Jaguars are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball including their offensive line losing some starting talent. They also have proven to be flexible about the type of coverages they play, something that flummoxed Gardner Minshew two weeks ago. Stopping the run will be a priority for sure, but after four weeks of terrible play, expect a jolt in a favorable home matchup.
The line wants us to believe: The Ravens blow out the previously winless Bengals. It's a public perception line for sure, though the public isn't buying it. More money is coming in on the Bengals. Given the Ravens' offensive mishaps, I'm not positive they can score their implied 32 points. Seems like a lot. It would be huge for Joe Burrow to manage to hang around until the fourth quarter.
Not what you wanted to read after his hat trick last week? Sorry, but the Ravens run defense has not let a rusher get 75 yards on the ground yet in a game this season. Mixon himself has struggled in his career against the division rival (one career game in six with over 10 non-PPR points) and his offensive line figures to see all kinds of trouble. Keep in mind, Mixon's two long, second-half touchdown runs came last week against a tired Jaguars defense that lost star linebacker Myles Jack in the first half. It's a plus that Mixon was more involved in the passing game — he'll have to be in order to be successful in Week 5. Baltimore's allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs this year and a 76% catch rate to backs in its past two. If only we could count on the Bengals brain trust to take note.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Higgins is playing like A.J. Green was expected to. His speed isn't bad, his routes are good, and he's fantastic at using his size to box out defenders and win contested catches. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens plan to cover him, and it may come down to how nervous Green still might make them. If they value Green, they'll play zone. If they don't, Higgins might get the shadow treatment from Marlon Humphrey, which I'm not sure would deter Joe Burrow from throwing at him anyway. The upside Higgins offers just can't be ignored.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Man, I really want to recommend starting Ingram. Cincinnati is allowing 158.5 rush yards per game, sixth-worst in the league. Every lead back it has played against has found at least 10 non-PPR points. But not all lead backs are created equal -- Ingram has played 55% or fewer snaps for the Ravens for 15 straight games. He's been under 50% in 11 of them, and he's been under 40% in six of them, including three of four this season. It's really tough to start someone who doesn't play a ton, especially when it's someone who's being outplayed by his backup — Gus Edwards has a better rushing average and has more carries than Ingram in two of the past three.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Falcons are just barely good enough. The whole world watched them get paddled at Green Bay -- now they're favorites? I feel like the oddsmakers want me to take the Panthers. And I will. Their defense is playing better while the Falcons defense is in the infirmary. Mike Davis should have one more monster stat line.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Moore's been a colossal disappointment and Bridgewater rarely gets attention from the Fantasy world, but the matchup is just too sweet. The Falcons, fresh off a Monday night when their defense played 63 snaps, will battle with a depleted secondary and a pass rush that has amassed a league-average 48 pressures through four games. Atlanta's insistence on playing a bunch of zone defense should help Moore get open more — he hasn't been great against man coverage based on the snaps I've seen. Bridgewater should have at least good production with a shot to hit big numbers. The Falcons have allowed four touchdowns to every quarterback they've faced so far this season.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: San Francisco steamrolls to a home win. I know it sounds silly, but I just don't think the Dolphins will struggle. It's kind of in Ryan Fitzpatrick's nature to play well when no one expects it and stink when everyone believes in him. Stunningly, the public is all over the Dolphins. Like more than any team. That makes me nervous to take them.
To be completely honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dolphins decided to manufacture touches for Gesicki this week after barely using him the past two weeks. Teammates like Isaiah Ford and Preston Williams haven't gotten it done, so he might. But it's hard to get behind Gesicki when he's had a 9.2% target share over the past two weeks ... and it's really impossible when the 49ers have shut down tight ends all season including 9 yards and a two-point conversion to Ertz last week and 22 yards to Evan Engram in consecutive weeks.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Someone could make the argument that the 49ers have given up the fourth-fewest rush yards to running backs this season because they have yet to face a truly tough opponent yet. And to that I'd say, "What do you call the Dolphins?" It's fine that Gaskin is playing at least 63% of the snaps and has at least three catches for 20 yards every game, but he's still sharing carries (10 or fewer in all of the Dolphins' non-blowout contests) and has one carry inside the 5-yard line through four games. He's at best a low-end option in PPR against a well-schemed 49ers defense.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The oddsmakers need to give a lot of points to get even action on a game involving the Giants. I don't think the Cowboys defense is good enough to keep anyone in the league from getting within 10 points. Jason Garrett has good information on his old team and is sure to help his new team stick around. Giants are desperate for a win, too. They'll give a fight.
Only the Bengals (18.8) are allowing more defensive pressures per game than the Giants (17.8). No one should be surprised, but it's that leaky O-line that's harpooning the Fantasy production of everyone with Big Blue. Daniel Jones is constantly forced backward and has been sacked 14 times already. So while it's great that Jones is looking for Engram when he's under pressure, it's a big factor in Engram's broken-mirror ugly average depth of target of 4.7 yards. True, the Cowboys have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three straight, including two from the 1-yard line, but it might be immaterial because any pass rush, including the Cowboys', isn't going to look bad against the Giants. He's safer to start in full PPR but don't expect a huge game.
| ||||||||||||||||||
This could be the week the Cowboys actually try to take some pressure off of Dak Prescott's arm and just run the ball a ton against the Giants. That still doesn't mean Schultz won't see some targets and take advantage of a good matchup. New York has covered tight ends well, but the best guys they've seen have been Eric Ebron (two targets) and Tyler Higbee (four targets). Schultz has benefited every game he's played from soft coverage because of the other receivers in the offense. He's effectively playing 70% of the snaps per game and owns a 14.8% target share in the past three games. Not bad.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Browns were a fraud in Week 4. I don't think they're a fraud, period. They're well coached and whoever on defense is healthy will make things difficult on the Colts. Do the oddsmakers want everybody to take the Browns? This one I don't think I can resist.
Do I want to recommend Hilton against the Browns' beat-up secondary? You bet your St. Elmo's shrimp cocktail I do! The Browns pass defense ranks third in most Fantasy points allowed to wideouts and quarterbacks this season. The hang up is whether or not Philip Rivers will dial up enough passes to Hilton when the Colts are (predictably) spreading the targets around. Hilton was around a 20% target share in Weeks 1 and 2 but has fallen off since. The Browns still figure to tilt defensive coverage toward him and take their chances with the other elements of Indy's pass game while trying to get to Philip Rivers. I suppose if you think this will be a high-scoring game (the oddsmakers don't), then Hilton is worth at least a flex start.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Vikings we saw last week aren't the real Vikings. Give credit to them, though, they've found some players to help them compete. Playing on the road for a consecutive week stinks but the Vikings should be able to stay within a score versus a Seattle defense that only looked good in Week 4 because of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Yep, Jefferson's for real. Over his two breakout games, Jefferson's seen a cumulative 29% target share (at least 23% in each) that he's turned into a 79% catch rate (11 of 14 targets) with SEVEN receptions for 20-plus yards. Expect more of the same against a Seahawks pass defense that got propped up statistically in Week 4 by a wayward-throwing Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not that Kirk Cousins is the definition of a steady quarterback, but even he knows Jefferson is a viable weapon in what could end up being a very high-scoring game. Jefferson specifically has been great versus zone coverage, and the Seahawks play a ton of it.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Saints are good enough to pull away. They did last week against an inept Lions squad, they could certainly do the same versus the Bolts. Admittedly, the Chargers are fun. But they're just not ready to be in the same class as New Orleans. Drew Brees might still have an axe to grind with his old team.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Neither guy impressed last week, though working behind the Chargers offensive line against the Buccaneers isn't exactly a walk in the park. New Orleans' run defense isn't so bad aside from the rushing touchdowns it has allowed in each of its last three games. If you have to start one, Kelley's the pick. He was the guy behind Austin Ekeler when the season started for a reason, he played more in the second half last week (14 snaps to Jackson's nine) plus he was in on more third down and passing down plays than Jackson, he's a better pass blocker and is probably a tad more physical.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Note: With the Titans having more positive COVID tests in recent days, their Week 5 matchup is up in the air right now. You'll want to make sure you have replacements for players in the Titans-Bills game in the event they are unable to be played.
The Titans might find themselves in the toughest spot a team could be in — they haven't had an organized practice in nearly two weeks. They're being asked to contain Josh Allen and his wily passing attack. Seems like if they play this game, the Bills should have their way.
Brown would have his third game with 10-plus non-PPR points last week had the referees ruled his goal-line reception in his favor. This week he draws a matchup against a Titans secondary that's given up three scores to receivers in its past two games. And it's been non-No. 1 receivers who have done better against the Titans instead of No. 1 guys. Not that THAT will scare you from starting Stefon Diggs. Brown's worth taking a chance on.
| ||||||||||||||||||
I have no idea how effective or prepared the Titans will actually be, so using him is a risk. And I'm familiar with the Bills' track record against tight ends, but Smith's kind of different in that he has tight end size but wide receiver speed. If he's covered by Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, that's great! Edmunds leads the NFL with 174 yards after catch allowed and has afforded a cool 100% catch rate. If it's one of the Bills' safeties, that's fine too because Smith has a size advantage. Expect Smith to be a primary target of Ryan Tannehill's, especially with Corey Davis and Adam Humphries both not available.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Bears will keep it close. Will they? Can they?! I can't see David Montgomery having a monster game, so it would have to be with Nick Foles and the defense containing Tom Brady's depleted offense. The line feels engineered to take the Buccaneers. If Chicago were better coached, it would be much easier to roll with 'em. But sometimes you have to do things that aren't easy.
The Bears have quarterback nightmare Khalil Mack but are just 13th in quarterback pressures and 18th in sacks (eight). They play a lot of zone, and they, like other teams, will be afraid to blitz Brady often. Helping their cause is a Bucs offense lacking sure-fire receivers besides Mike Evans. The Bears have seen good play from their outside cornerbacks (both have allowed less than a 47% completion rate) and even linebacker Roquan Smith has been a bright spot in coverage. There's enough evidence to believe Brady can have a good game, but not a touchdown barrage like in Week 4.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Jones had a career-high 20 carries last week to help him put up his second career 100-yard game. However, he was a liability in the passing game, turning the six balls he did catch into just 17 yards while dropping two passes (and three in his past two games). I wonder if he'll lose passing downs work — he hasn't had any pass-blocking snaps in Weeks 3 and 4. If Leonard Fournette plays, there's always the chance Jones' touches dwindle, so if Fournette's out, you should feel better starting Jones. Rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn shouldn't be considered a serious threat just yet. Also, Chicago's run defense isn't stout by any stretch, and running backs tend to have an advantage on short weeks. He's a risk no matter what, but this week he's good enough to fall into the top-24.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Montgomery saw a season-high 85% of the Bears snaps in Week 4, yet notched season-lows in carries (10) and touches (13). Worse yet, he has back-to-back games with under 60 total yards. Now he has the good fortune of running into a Buccaneers run defense that's allowed 12 Fantasy points to running backs in its last eight quarters. The 2.7 receptions per game he has since Week 2 gives him a slight perk in PPR. Until there's reasonable evidence that a) his coaches like him, and b) he's not a slug, Fantasy managers should avoid him.
| ||||||||||||||||||
So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 5 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big-time last season.
