Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans odds: AFC Wild Card picks from expert on 11-1 run

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans on Saturday to kick off NFL Wild Card Weekend. The Chiefs are eight-point favorites after the line opened at seven.Heavy action from sharps and the public alike has caused the spread to rise from where it opened, and it had moved as high as nine.

The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 44.5, the same as where it opened..

Before you lock in your picks, especially on a game with so much line movement, you'll want to hear what SportsLine expert Galin "The Dragon" Dragiev has to say.

In Week 16, Dragiev told SportsLine readers to back these same Chiefs at -10.5 against the Dolphins, saying the game would be a blowout. The result: a 16-point K.C. victory. Anyone who followed his advice didn't even break a sweat.

Stunningly, that cash improved him to 11-1 in his past dozen NFL picks.

Part of his success: Dragiev learned early on to predict the outcome of the game before determining how success trickles down to individual players, so he spent more time studying team outcomes than projecting individual players. When it comes to predictions, he trusts numbers above all else.

Now, he has examined every angle, every matchup and every trend in Titans-Chiefs and locked in his pick. You can see it over at SportsLine.

Dragiev knows the Titans have limped into the playoffs. They've dropped three of their past four games -- all to NFC West teams -- and were outscored by 22 points this season despite being a nine-win team.

The Titans' supposedly vaunted "exotic smashmouth" ground game has produced just three 100-yard runners all season. And in the team's must-win game against Jacksonville in Week 17, quarterback Marcus Mariota was the team's leading rusher.

Tennessee hasn't scored more than 23 points the last four weeks and dropped three of its last four road games, including a 40-7 defeat at Pittsburgh, another playoff team. They also gave up a franchise-high 57 points to Deshaun Watson and the Texans in Houston.

But just because the Titans have been struggling doesn't mean they can't stay within a spread that's approaching double digits.

The Chiefs have won their past four games, but they were against the 6-10 Raiders, 9-7 Chargers, 6-10 Dolphins and 5-11 Broncos -- not exactly stiff competition.

Before that, Kansas City had dropped six of seven, the lone win coming against the disappointing Broncos. The Chiefs gave the Giants one of their three wins, let the Jets' Josh McCown throw for almost 350 yards in a loss at MetLife, and had less than 250 yards of total offense in a loss to Buffalo.

There was even talk of quarterback Alex Smith being benched and rookie running back Kareem Hunt being a bust following their hot starts.

SportsLine's advanced computer simulation says it could be a long afternoon for Hunt, who will rush for only 67 yards against the Titans' fourth-ranked run defense. Tennessee is allowing just 88.8 yards per game on the ground and held Leonard Fournette to 69 yards last week. 

We can tell you Dragiev is leaning Under, but he spotted a critical x-factor you might not be thinking about that determines which side of Titans vs. Chiefs you need to be all over. And SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert, R.J. White, agrees with him.

So what side of Titans-Chiefs in the AFC wild-card game do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine to see which side of Titans-Chiefs is a must-back, and what critical x-factor determines which side you need to pounce on, all from the expert on a red-hot 11-1 run.

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