Allow me to sum up my Week 1 best bets in one handy GIF:
Now, I use that GIF a lot. But 1-4 is more than worth trotting it out for the 1,500th time (it also might be the most usable GIF ever). And just like my GIF usage, my picks aren't going to change dramatically because of a bad 1-4 week.
Week 1 is a fine time to stink up the joint because we know very little about teams coming out of the gate. In so much as there's a fine time to stink up the joint anyway.
The key is stick to your guns while adjusting to some of the things we learned about these teams in the first week and also not overreacting to particular outcomes.
With that in mind, let's get hot. See the full picks here on our NFL Expert Picks page.
Texans -2.5 vs. Chiefs: The home team gets three points by default from Vegas, and the Texans aren't getting the max. People loved the Chiefs and are continuing to buy them at 1-0. They're underselling the Texans, whose offense looks capable of really exploding this year. J.J. Watt should be better in Week 2 and Lamar Miller should do some damage against a Chiefs defense that allowed 4.8 yards per carry to the Chargers last week.
Browns +6.5 vs. Ravens: Cleveland is terrible. No doubt about it. But it's home, playing a division rival it has been frisky against in years past and the truth might hurt here a little bit if Josh McCown -- fired up about people saying Cleveland is tanking! -- is just better than Robert Griffin III in this offense. He might actually use the Browns' two best offensive weapons -- Duke Johnson and Gary Barnidge -- while Griffin targeted them just seven times combined. Barnidge didn't have a reception against Philly.
Bears -2.5 vs. Eagles: Not a great showing for Chicago in Week 1 against the Texans, particularly in the second half when the Bears were blanked. They won't put up a ton of points here either against a good Eagles defense. But I don't see Carson Wentz having a huge game in this spot either: on Monday night, on the road, as a rookie, in front of a crowd that should be fired up.
Rams +3.5 vs. Seahawks: The important thing about this line, to me, is jump on it early. If for any reason Russell Wilson is ruled out -- he's currently questionable -- you won't see the Rams getting more than a field goal at home against Trevone Boykin. Wilson will probably play, but I would sit him myself. He got his ankle destroyed by Ndamukong Suh last weekend and the Rams defensive line will be fired up to improve on pathetic Week 1 results. I'm picking the Rams to win straight up.
Cardinals -6.5 vs. Buccaneers: I love Tampa this year, but it just got unlucky this week. Arizona was humiliated at home against the Patriots and will be out for blood. Do not like laying nearly a full touchdown here, but I just think the Cardinals come out fired up after Bruce Arians spent roughly Sunday at midnight to Sunday at noon MF'ing them all over the place. Much better defense for Arizona than the Falcons brought against Jameis Winston too. I'm picking the Cardinals to win straight up.