For the 20th time, Drew Brees squares off against Matt Ryan. Although Brees leads the head-to-head series 11-8, Ryan is the one with an NFL MVP Award. On Sunday, they face off in Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 1 p.m. ET, when the Atlanta Falcons host the New Orleans Saints. Both teams are 1-1 and trail the surprising Buccaneers in the NFC South. In what is shaping up to be the league's strongest division, this game has huge early playoff implications. The Falcons are two-point favorites, down from an open of four. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has dipped from 54.5 to 53.5. The Falcons are -130 on the money line (risk $130 to win $100), while the Saints are +110 (risk $100 to win $110).

Before you lock in any Saints vs. Falcons picks, see what SportsLine's Projection Model has to say. In a straight-up, pick-'em format, their proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

It also nailed its last three top-rated picks in Week 2 of this season, including backing the Kansas City Chiefs against the spread (+4.5) and on the money line (+170) for their big upset of the Steelers. It's now 5-2 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 53-36. 

Now, the computer has simulated New Orleans vs. Atlanta 10,000 times to produce strong against the spread and over-under picks. It says you can bank on the under 55 percent of the time, but it's also locked in a point spread pick that hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see it at SportsLine.

The model knows that Brees has gotten off to a sizzling start in 2018. With 682 passing yards and five touchdowns, he has been locked in on the gridiron with an 81 percent completion rate. He'll be keying on superstar wideout Michael Thomas, who has been nothing short of dazzling in his first two games. Thomas is third in receiving yards with 269 and tops in the league with 28 receptions. He followed up his 16-grab opener with 12 more against the Browns.

Saints running back Alvin Kamara will continue to fill in for a suspended Mark Ingram. Kamara already has 15 catches out of the backfield and three total touchdowns. On Sunday, he'll face a Falcons defense that's 24th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 117.0 per game.

Just because the Saints have a high-flying offense doesn't mean they'll stay within the spread on Sunday.

Devonta Freeman is ruled out, but Atlanta has a capable backup in Tevin Coleman, who filled in admirably last week with a 107-yard performance. While not the pass-catching threat Freeman is, Coleman did snag four balls for 18 yards against the Panthers. And Atlanta still has five-time Pro Bowler Julio Jones, who has 15 catches for 233 yards this season.

These teams split last year's series, with Atlanta winning by three at home and New Orleans winning by 10 in the Superdome.

So, which side of the Falcons vs. Saints spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned over $4,000 to $100 bettors.