SEC picks, games, odds for Week 11: LSU and Alabama meet in the biggest game of 2019; Georgia keeps rolling
The SEC will be the center of the college football world on Saturday afternoon
The rubber is meeting the road in the race for division titles, and the SEC West will take center stage on Saturday in the biggest game of the college football season. Alabama, No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, will host No. 2 LSU in the biggest game of the season with the winner taking control of the division heading into the stretch run.
Let's break down the Week 11 slate and make picks straight up and against the spread.
2019 record straight up: 60-20 (75.0%)
2019 record against the spread: 42-37-1 (53.1%)
No. 2 LSU at No. 3 Alabama (-6.5): It would be a total shock if Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (ankle) doesn't play against the Tigers, which is bad news for a Tigers defense that has given up 78 passing plays of 10 or more yards (T-7th SEC). Tagovailoa will work that RPO game to perfection and put pressure on LSU's offense to keep up. Auburn created a blueprint on how to slow down that offense two weeks ago. Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban will take advantage of the extra time and do enough defensively to get a close win ... but not a cover. Pick: LSU (+6.5)
Missouri at No. 6 Georgia (-17): The return of wide receiver Lawrence Cager and a more creative offensive philosophy helped the Bulldogs control Florida last week. Georgia will build off of it against a Tigers' defense that gave up 6.4 yards per play last time out to a Kentucky team that used wide receiver Lynn Bowden at quarterback. That, coupled with the injury to Tigers quarterback Kelly Bryant, will make this an easy win between the hedges for the Bulldogs. Pick: Georgia (-17)
Vanderbilt at No. 10 Florida (-26): The Gators defense got held in check by Georgia last week, but the Commodores are the perfect elixir for Florida's hangover. The Commodores have allowed 6.25 tackles for loss per game this season (12th in the SEC) and 2.13 sacks per game (11th in the SEC). Florida's running game hasn't been great, but it'll get cranked up against a 'Dores defense that ranks 13th in the conference in rush defense (202.5 YPG). Pick: Florida (-26)
Tennessee at Kentucky (+1): The Vols have played great since sputtering out of the gate, and their defense was lights out against a good UAB team last week on Rocky Top. They'll shut down a Kentucky offense with converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden at quarterback that has essentially transformed into a spread option scheme. Tennessee will run its way to an easy win on the legs of running back Ty Chandler. Pick: Tennessee (-1)
Appalachian State at South Carolina (-5): The Mountaineers' undefeated season came to an end last week, but a win over the Gamecocks would be a huge boost as they fight to make a New Year's Six bowl. Unfortunately for them, it isn't going to happen. Coach Will Muschamp's front seven has been fierce this year (6.22 TFL per game), and the Mountaineers are sixth in the Sun Belt in TFL allowed (5.5). The Gamecocks make this one and old school slugfest, and throw a haymaker in the fourth quarter to pull away. Pick: South Carolina (-5)
Western Kentucky at Arkansas (-1.5): Things have gone from bad to worse with the Razorbacks this season, and it culminated last week when they got smoked 54-24 by Mississippi State in a game that wasn't even as close as the score indicates. The defense is a total disaster and will get lit up by a Hilltoppers offense led by quarterback Ty Storey -- Arkansas' starter from last season. This year's Arkansas offense can't seem to find a quarterback, and won't be able to keep up. Pick: Western Kentucky (+1.5)
New Mexico State at Ole Miss (-28): Rebels quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is one of three SEC players who are averaging 100 or more yards per game on the ground, and will continue his great work this season against an overmatched Aggies team. But the new-look Ole Miss offense will also drain the clock, and it's hard to trust the Ole Miss defense enough to assume it's second-team is good enough to prevent a backdoor cover. Pick: New Mexico State (+28)
So what picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And which line is way off, making it a must-back? Visit SportsLine to see which college football teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,000 in profit over the past four seasons.
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