Before you draft your Fantasy Football team, you have to know where you're drafting. If you're reading this, you're already probably ahead of the competition when it comes to prepping for your Fantasy draft, because a lot of people don't really think about the team they're going to draft until they're in the draft room, where the default rankings and ADP wherever you are playing is going to play a big role in how your draft shakes out.
Which is why knowing which players are over- or under-valued at different Fantasy draft sites can give you an edge. That's what I'm looking for today. I compared ADP data from ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS Fantasy, to find the biggest outliers in each site's default rankings. Here are the worst values at each site -- the players going earlier in drafts, relative to the other sites -- based on ADP so far:
The worst values in CBS Fantasy drafts
First, here's a table with the 15 non-kickers/DSTs who cost the most in CBS Fantasy leagues, compared to Yahoo and ESPN:
|Brian Robinson Jr.||106||96||66|
And here are five players I'm avoiding in CBS drafts:
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (98)
I can't say I like Kincaid this much. He might end up bucking the rookie TE trend and becoming a viable starting Fantasy tight end, but I can't really justify taking him ahead of David Njoku, which is currently how ADP stacks up. I love the talent with Kincaid, and the opportunity to play a big role in the Bills offense is clear. But Sam LaPorta has a similar opportunity in the Lions offense and he's going 75 picks later.
De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins (131)
I thought Achane had a chance to emerge as the Dolphins lead back pretty early on, but preseason usage suggests he's not particularly close – he was running behind the likes of Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed in the team's first two preseason games. That doesn't mean Achane isn't worth drafting, and this is late enough that there really isn't that much downside to the pick. It just isn't a bet that feels as good as it seemed it might before camp.
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Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders (66)
Robinson goes off the board 30 picks later in Yahoo leagues; he goes off the board 40 picks later in ESPN leagues. That's where I'm more comfortable taking Robinson, though even then, I have a hard time seeing myself ever actually pulling the trigger on him unless I'm just desperate for certainty at the RB position. He's unlikely to have much of a passing game role, which leaves Robinson as an early-down plodder who we're hoping gets a handful of touchdowns. I'd rather have Antonio Gibson straight up, let alone more than 50 picks later, as CBS ADP suggests.
Here's another situation where I actually like Mattison more than his "bad" price in CBS leagues – he's my No. 30 overall player. But, when you see him at 64th and 60th in the other two categories here, it becomes a lot harder to justify that third-round pick. And, for what it's worth, in the dozen or so leagues I've drafted so far, I haven't actually pulled the trigger on Mattison, because there are usually other running backs I like even more. In CBS ADP, that usually includes Breece Hall (51st) or Miles Sanders (52nd).
This price is perfectly reasonable for Herbert, who seems to have established himself as the leader of the Bears committee in camp and preseason. So this one is more about Herbert's relative cost elsewhere – he's 94th in ESPN and 100th in Yahoo. Herbert likely won't be involved much in the passing game, and he'll still have to deal with D'Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson getting some opportunities, so I think he probably has an RB2 ceiling, which usually isn't worth reaching for. I have him ranked 76th, but if I draft him, it's probably because he fell even farther than that.
The worst values in ESPN drafts
First, here's a table with the 15 non-kickers/DSTs who cost the most in ESPN Fantasy leagues, compared to Yahoo and CBS Fantasy:
And here are five players I'd be avoiding at ESPN:
Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos (96)
I'm open to the idea that Sutton could have a bounce-back season. It's not unreasonable to think the Broncos offense could take a big step forward going from the clearly overmatched Nathaniel Hackett to the proven Sean Payton, after all. But a top-100 pick is not a price I'm willing to pay to find out when Sutton has only ever really performed like a player worth that pick back in 2019. He's in the 140-150 range at Yahoo and CBS, and that's a lot easier to stomach.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Patriots (112)
This is one where I actually don't dislike Smith-Schuster at this price – it's just a lot more expensive than what you have to pay at either other site. I've got Smith-Schuster as a top-90 pick, and I'd be willing to take him where he's going in ESPN leagues … except you probably don't need to, and if you miss out on him, it's unlikely you'll really regret it. He should be a decent starting PPR option, but I think it's unlikely we're going to see much upside from him in that offense. He's a player to let fall to you.
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Treylon Burks, WR, Titans (101)
Burks is 20 spots higher at ESPN than at Yahoo, and 50 picks higher than in CBS leagues. It's another one where I'd actually be willing to draft him at that cost, but he's also going ahead of players I like even more, like Skyy Moore, Jordan Addison, and Gabe Davis – and that's just at WR. If you take Burks at 100, you're making what might end up being a decent pick, but only if those other players are already gone, and they usually aren't.
I've talked myself into White a bit more over the past month or so, as camp reports have indicated that he is the clear starter for the Buccaneers to open the season. In fact, you guessed it, I've got him ranked right in this range, too! But he's just a much better buy in Yahoo and CBS leagues, where he goes off the board some 30 picks later. White is the starter in Tampa for Week 1, by all accounts, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to remain the starter – we're talking about a third-round pick, not a blue-chip prospect, who wasn't more effective in any facet of the game than Leonard Fournette, who can't even find a job right now. White is a classic Dead Zone RB, whose Fantasy relevance comes much more from projected usage than talent. He may surprise – and his pass-catching could make him a very solid RB2 – but he's another player I'd prefer to wait on than reach for. That's harder in ESPN leagues.
Odell Beckham, WR, Ravens (99)
None of the Ravens wide receivers are really targets for me, despite the injection of talent in this passing game. I just don't have a good feel for how the hierarchy is going to shake out, except that they are competing to be the No. 2 behind Mark Andrews in what I still expect to be a low-volume passing offense. Rashod Bateman goes outside of the top 200 in ESPN leagues, while rookie Zay Flowers goes a few rounds after Beckham. If I'm going to bet on this passing game taking a big step forward, I'd rather do it by drafting Lamar Jackson in the fourth round, but if I am going to take one of these guys, it's going to be whichever one is cheapest. That isn't Beckham, at least not at ESPN.com
The worst values in Yahoo drafts
First, here's a table with the 15 non-kickers/DSTs who cost the most in Yahoo Fantasy leagues, compared to CBS and ESPN Fantasy:
And here are five players I'd be avoiding at Yahoo:
Mac Jones, QB, Patriots (124)
I … don't understand what's going on here. Quarterbacks, especially bench options, tend to go a bit earlier in Yahoo leagues, but I don't think that quite explains what's going on here. Jones is QB16 in Yahoo ADP, ahead of Anthony Richardson, Russell Wilson, and Jared Goff, to name just three who tend to go ahead of him otherwise. Jones is a fringe starter in a 2QB league, and he doesn't belong on draft boards in most 1QB leagues.
Damien Harris, RB, Bills (107)
There was a time when I had Harris ranked around here, but pretty much every report out of training camp has changed my thoughts on that. Harris has been limited for much of camp with an injury, but when he's been out there, it's not even clear he has outperformed journeyman Latavius Murray. What has become very clear is that James Cook is going to get a chance to be a true lead back in this offense. I thought Harris had a chance to handle at least the short-yardage stuff, and potentially be in a full-blown committee. Now? I'm not sure he's worth drafting in your typical 12-team league.
Breece Hall, RB, Jets (30)
Hall is a classic high-variance player this season. As a rookie, he looked like a potential No. 1 pick candidate, with legitimate, three-down skills and the ability to break long plays in every facet of the game. However, he's working his way back from a torn ACL, and it's still not clear if he's going to be ready to play in time for Week 1. I'd bet on it, but there is, of course, a big difference between, "Ready to play in time for Week 1," and, "Ready to be a star again." I've got Hall ranked lower than this, more in 50 range, where he's going in ESPN and CBS leagues. But I can't necessarily say picking Hall 30th is a bad pick, because if he gives us superstar production for half the season, that's probably a worthwhile pick. I wouldn't take him this high, but if you want to, that's understandable.
Akers isn't a player I find myself taking much of even when he's going in the 60 range, because I've either already taken two early running backs or I'm going to wait even longer. It's not that I can't see the case for Akers, I just think he has a very narrow path to true, difference-making upside. To be fair, he did perform like a difference maker down the stretch last season, when he averaged 17.9 PPR points per game over the final six games; however, that came during a stretch where the Rams had little to play for and were playing him 75% of the snap for many of the games. He needs to dominate touches to be a good, but not elite Fantasy option; if David Montgomery plays 75% of the snaps for the Lions at any point this season, to name one guy in a similar range, I promise, he'll be even better than that.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Broncos (122)
There's been some talk in camp about the Broncos viewing Dulcich as a unique weapon for Sean Payton to deploy in his offense, and maybe that'll end up being the case. But, what we've seen in the preseason has been Adam Trautman handling the early downs for the Broncos, with Dulcich playing a part time role in more obvious passing situations. He can be relevant for Fantasy with that usage, but his margin for error is already slim enough that it's scaring me off. I don't really have much interest in drafting Dulcich as is, and in Yahoo leagues, he's going ahead of Dalton Kincaid and Tyler Higbee, who I like a lot more.