It's Week 4 of the NFL season and the chalk is getting easier to predict. You know just about every week there are going to be Chiefs among the most played at every position, and then there's whoever is playing the Dolphins. This week it's particularly interesting because the Chargers left half of their offense at home, but brought Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. One surprise was that they also brought Melvin Gordon ... and he may play.
Ekeler and Allen will be extremely chalky, but I'm not going to fade them. Gordon is more interesting. On FanDuel he's just $4,500, and I do think he's an interesting tournament play. Even if he just gets 10 touches he could justify that cost easily against this defense. It's easier to just ignore him on DraftKings due to his price. Gordon didn't make my top plays or contrarian plays below, but a couple of Chargers did.
*All ownership projections courtesy of UFCollective.
DFS Picks
Wilson has worked his magic the past two weeks because the Seahawks coaching staff has let him throw the ball. He's thrown it 85 times to be exact. I know that's not what they want to do, but I don't think their defense is good enough to follow the plan they'd originally intended. Against a fast-paced Cardinals team with no defense, Wilson should have another monster day.
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If you were worried about McCaffrey without Cam, last week should have eased your fears. For the season he's now averaging 25 touches and 150 total yards per game. With Saquon Barkley out and Ezekiel Elliott sharing more, McCaffrey is the clear No. 1 running back each week.
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Allen was my No. 1 receiver before we found out half of the Dolphins offense wasn't making the trip to Miami. Against some defenses, I might worry that Allen will see too much attention, but not against the Dolphins. He's led the NFL in just about every receiving category through three weeks, and I expect that to remain true after Week 4.
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Engram will face one of the worst pass defenses in the league without Saquon Barkley in game that has an over/under hovering around 50. He has a good shot at double-digit targets and is my No. 1 tight end regardless of price this week.
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This Seahawks defense gave up more than 400 yards to Andy Dalton and more than 30 points to a Saints team without Drew Brees. It's not the same defense. Murray has remained the highest-volume passer in the league and added more on the ground in Week 3. We still haven't seen what the upside of this offense looks like.
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Henry has everything we want in a tournament play. Guaranteed volume plus big-play ability. All that plus the Falcons defense is beat up again and may just be a better matchup than they look like on paper. Forget about the road underdog stuff and play Henry.
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I understand why no one wants to play a No. 1 receiver against the Patriots. But if you're going to do it you want it to be the type of receiver who can make your day in one play. With Brown's blazing speed and low price, he's just that type of receiver.
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Hooper is seeing seven-plus targets per game and he's at home in the dome in Week 4. He has a catch rate over 80% this season and over 75% for his career. He's a top 10 tight end, but he's just not being treated like one this week.
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FanDuel Contrarian Lineup
QB Kyler Murray $7,600
RB Derrick Henry $7,000
RB Christian McCaffrey $9,000
WR John Brown $5,600
WR Larry Fitzgerald $5,900
WR Christian Kirk $5,900
TE Austin Hooper $6,400
FLEX Keenan Allen $8,100
DST Los Angeles Rams $4,300
DraftKings Contrarian Lineup
QB Kyler Murray $6,000
RB Derrick Henry $6,300
RB Austin Ekeler $8,000
WR John Brown $5,300
WR Larry Fitzgerald $5,600
WR Christian Kirk $5,100
TE Austin Hooper $4,300
FLEX Tyler Lockett $6,300
DST Denver Broncos $2,900
