Just two weeks ago, my College Football Playoff projections did not include a single team from the Big Ten. Now, they feature two.
The latest to join the party is Penn State, which benefited from Oklahoma's head-scratching loss at home to Iowa State, a game in which the Sooners were four-touchdown favorites. The Cyclones were also playing their backup quarterback.
That loss will be hard for Oklahoma to overcome, even with the head-to-head result over Ohio State. In fact, that loss has knocked the Sooners out of the New Year's Six projections altogether.
2018 College Football Playoff
| DATE | GAME / LOC. | TIME / TV | MATCHUP | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | 8 p.m. | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | 5 p.m. | Semifinal | (2) Clemson vs. (3) Ohio State |
Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | 8:45 p.m. | Semifinal | (1) Alabama vs. (4) Penn State |
Selection committee bowl games
| DATE | GAME / LOC. | TIME / TV | MATCHUP | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Peach | 12:30 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State |
Dec. 30 | Fiesta | 4 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | USC vs. San Diego State |
Dec. 30 | Orange | 8 p.m. | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND | Auburn vs. Miami |
Dec. 29 | Cotton | 8:30 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | Georgia vs. Washington |
With Penn State moving into the playoff, Louisville's loss on Thursday night, and Oklahoma State as the new projected Big 12 champion, there was a fair amount of shuffling around in the New Year's Six games.
The Peach Bowl projection is now Wisconsin and Oklahoma State. I believe the Badgers will be displaced in the Orange Bowl by Auburn, which should be a strongly rated team with projected losses only to Clemson and Alabama. Oklahoma State is placed there instead of the Cotton Bowl because the Cowboys would have just been to Dallas for the Big 12 Championship Game.
The same concept applies to Georgia, which is moved from the Peach Bowl to the Cotton Bowl. The Bulldogs are projected to face Pac-12 runner up Washington. Miami takes what was Louisville's spot in the Orange Bowl to face the Tigers.
Auburn going to the Orange Bowl has a ripple effect on the Big Ten and ACC. If the Big Ten is in that game instead of the SEC, then the ACC gets the Big Ten's spot in the Citrus Bowl. Auburn replacing Wisconsin in the projection this week means the Citrus Bowl goes back to the Big Ten and teams in both leagues have to move accordingly.
The Big 12 is now down to just one team in the New Year's Six games. TCU may yet have something to say about that, but it still travels to Norman, Oklahoma, to face the Sooners and will likely be Oklahoma State's opponent in the Big 12 title game.
We have actual bowl-eligible teams now. Seven teams picked up win No. 6 this week, guaranteeing them a spot in the postseason. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Penn State, San Diego State, Washington and Washington State can start making room on their calendars now.
Air Force is the only team projected to be in a bowl game with a 5-7 record this week. This is the closest I have come to not having a 5-7 team in the bowl projections since the number of bowl games expanded to 40 a few years ago. The number of games is at 39 this year because of the loss of the Poinsettia Bowl.
For the rest of my updated bowl projections after Week 6, please click here.
