This season is unlike anything we have ever experienced. Computer simulations -- if that's your thing -- mean nothing with only a smattering of nonconference games between FBS schools currently scheduled and four of the leagues not playing any at all. Nevertheless, we must work with what we have.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will feature a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright. I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams.
Last week ... well, let's forget about last week. Time to start fresh. The upset pick is 3-3 outright so far this year and 4-2 ATS, so let's move ahead to the selections for Week 11 of the season.
Odds below provided via William Hill Sportsbook
Week 11 Picks
East Carolina at Cincinnati (-27): This is a big number, but the Bearcats need to put up big numbers against teams near the bottom of the league like they have against some of the better teams the last couple of weeks. Cincinnati cannot get caught looking ahead to the game at UCF next week. Style points matter. Pick: Cincinnati (-27)
Miami at Virginia Tech (-2): Miami is sitting 6-1 and ranked in the top 10, with the Hurricanes' only loss coming at Clemson. Virginia Tech has been playing hit-and-miss football for the past several weeks and is coming off a home loss to Liberty. I can understand oddsmakers having some reservations about Miami because they do not always win impressively. But, they do find ways to win. Pick: Miami (+2)
Nevada vs. New Mexico (+17): You have to feel for New Mexico. Governmental restrictions due to the coronavirus outbreak have forced the Lobos to leave the state to play this week's home game against the best team in the league not named Boise State to Las Vegas. Actually, the Wolf Pack might just be the best, period. The Lobos would be huge underdogs at home regardless, so this should not be close. Pick: Nevada (-17)
Upset of the Week
Illinois at Rutgers (-7): You have to give Rutgers coach Greg Schiano credit as he has his team playing loose and confident. The reward for the Scarlet Knights is that they are favored in a conference game for the first time since 2014. They face an Illinois team that is getting back to full strength after a couple of games with a COVID-19 damaged roster. I think this line does not reflect the difference between these teams. Pick: Illinois (+7)
Other CFP candidates
- Notre Dame at Boston College (+13.5) Pick: Boston College
- Ohio State at Maryland (+25) Pick: Ohio State
- Arkansas at Florida (-17.5) Pick: Florida
- Oregon at Washington State (+10) Pick: Oregon
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,900 in profit over the past four-plus seasons -- and find out.