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USATSI

Well, Week 10 was interesting. DFS scores were on the rise, but it was still a pretty wacky NFL week filled with blowouts and upsets. We had six wins of 21 or more points. Is that normal? It doesn't seem normal. Anyway, if you had the chalk running backs in D'Ernest Johnson and Mark Ingram with one of Jonathan Taylor, Stefon Diggs, or CeeDee Lamb, chances are you did just fine. Oddly enough, Week 11 is setting up very similarly with value running backs, a few studs up top and big-name wide receivers you'll spend up on.

With only two teams on bye in Week 11 we're looking at a 12-game main slate in DFS. According to Caesars Sportsbook, we currently have two games with a total over 50 points with the Colts-Bills just below at 49.5. We're also looking at two double-digit spreads with the Browns -11.5 hosting the Lions and the Titans -10.5 hosting the Texans. What's so interesting about this specific DFS slate is that while there are 12 games available, nine of them are early on with only three games in the late afternoon. An added wrinkle is that the game expected to carry the highest ownership (by far) is the Cowboys-Chiefs, which doesn't kick off until 4:25 p.m. ET. Just keep that in mind because if you get off to a slow start in the early games, you may want to pivot off some of your Cowboys or Chiefs. Speaking of which, let's start there.

Game stacks to target

That Cowboys-Chiefs game currently has a game total of 56 points, far and away the highest on the slate. On top of that, this game features some of the most popular players in the NFL. It's going to carry a ton of ownership in DFS this week and rightfully so. Personally, I'm hoping we get something crazy like that Chiefs-Rams Monday Night Football game from back in 2018 where the two teams combined for 105 points. When building cash lineups this week, don't worry about ownership and target as much of this game as you feel comfortable with. In single entry and three-max tournaments, you can still target this game but maybe find a few ways to get different. If you're playing large field MME tournaments, you might just want a few pieces of this game or you can target the running backs as leverage in case it's a slower, smash-mouth style game.

Up at the top, Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott are too cheap on DraftKings this week, especially Mahomes. I think pairing Mahomes with Tyreek Hill and Byron Pringle to save a little salary will be popular. Pringle is just $3,400 and is coming off a game where he played a season-high 61% of the snaps. He has 55 yards or a touchdown in four of his last five games. Clearly, he's earned more of an opportunity and has been coming through for Mahomes and the Chiefs. In terms of bring-backs on the Cowboys side, I'm either going all the way up to CeeDee Lamb or spending down on Michael Gallup with Amari Cooper on the COVID list. Don't be afraid to mix it up, though. Again, many people will be on this game. You have to find ways to be different. Mike McClure of Fantasy Football Today DFS believes he found a way.

"CeeDee Lamb will be a real focal point. The other one that I think will be a tournament focal point for me is Dalton Schultz. He dropped a touchdown in the end zone last week and that totally changed what his box score looked like... I think that Schultz could definitely have a few of those longer 20 to 30 yards catches over the middle like we've seen from him at times this season."

Here are my favorite stacks in Week 11:

I know I didn't mention him in the stacks, but I have to give a quick shout out to Cam Newton at just $5,100 on DraftKings. He's back. I'm not going to sit here and tell you I have zero hesitation about playing him in DFS because he was quite bad with the Patriots. With that being said, he has a great matchup, great weapons, rushing upside, touchdown capital, and is likely motivated going against his former coach in Ron Rivera. On top of all that, he's cheap. Cam is in play by himself in cash or with D.J. Moore or Christian McCaffrey in GPPs.

Attacking the running back position

As mentioned, Week 11 is a lot like Week 10 at the running back position. We have a bunch of value running backs on DraftKings and then a handful that we can target up at the top for bigger upside. Let's start with the value this time. The most obvious chalk play this week will be A.J. Dillon. With Aaron Jones hurt last week, Dillon handled 23 touches, which resulted in 128 yards and two touchdowns. With Alvin Kamara and Elijah Mitchell out, Mark Ingram and Jeff Wilson will be chalky as well and rightfully so. Another I'll be focused on is Myles Gaskin. My buddy Sia Nejad likes to say "friends don't let friends play Myles Gaskin," but the Jets are just so horrendous on defense. They're allowing 4.82 yards per carry and 7.56 receptions per game to running backs this season, both second most in the NFL. The Jets have also allowed 20 total touchdowns to the position, four more than the Detroit Lions. It's that bad. Here are the value options I'm focused on most.

Take your pick up at the top, but my favorite is Dalvin Cook. One of these massive games is coming. Cook just put up 118 total yards and a touchdown on 27 touches, but he could have had even more. He has 18 red-zone opportunities over the past two weeks and, according to Rich Hribar, touchdown regression should be coming. If Cook isn't for you, I have no issue playing any of McCaffrey, Taylor, Nick Chubb or even Joe Mixon in GPPs.

Value pass catchers

I already told you about Pringle and Gallup, but Tee Higgins remains way too cheap at $5,400 on DraftKings. We're talking about a receiver with a 25% target share and leads his team with eight red-zone targets. He has exactly between 13.2 and 13.8 PPR points over his last three games, which already pays off his salary. If he gets in the end zone on top of that, he's a smash play. We often like to target cheap tight ends in DFS, but it's not every day we find one who is the minimum price. That's what happens when we're up to the third string tight end for the Washington Football Team. That's right. Not only is John Bates a real human, but he plays in the NFL and is somebody to target in DFS this week. I'll let Sia tell you more about him.

Here are my favorite value wide receivers:

And here are my favorite value tight ends:

And here's a single entry GPP lineup I already built out on DraftKings:

  • Patrick Mahomes, $7,600
  • A.J. Dillon, $6,200
  • Mark Ingram, $5,400
  • Tyreek Hill, $8,200
  • CeeDee Lamb, $7,600
  • Byron Pringle, $3,400
  • John Bates, $2,500
  • D.J. Moore, $5,900
  • CLE DST, $3,100

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